NHL: 2026 Conn Smythe Trophy Winner
Leader sits at 33% across 5 bound outcomes, runner-up at 27%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
2026 Conn Smythe Trophy Winner: Mitch Marner
Outcomes
5
winner-take-all
Runner-up
27¢
2026 Conn Smythe Trophy Winn
Spread
6pp
contested
24h volume
$40
thin orderbook
Closes
Jul 1, 2026
34 days
Venue
Polymarket
5 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
NHL: 2026 Conn Smythe Trophy Winner
NHL: 2026 Conn Smythe Trophy Winner: Mitch Marner
0x95cd0f…1f88
NHL: 2026 Conn Smythe Trophy Winner: Sebastian Aho
0xce35cd…23ae
NHL: 2026 Conn Smythe Trophy Winner: Jack Eichel
0xcded52…aeea
NHL: 2026 Conn Smythe Trophy Winner: Nick Suzuki
0x813432…10a0
NHL: 2026 Conn Smythe Trophy Winner: Seth Jarvis
0x6a72e0…6708
What moved the line
- May 242026 Conn Smythe Trophy Winner: Mitch Marner↑29pp19→48¢ · Polymarket
- May 222026 Conn Smythe Trophy Winner: Seth Jarvis↑26pp2→28¢ · Polymarket
- May 232026 Conn Smythe Trophy Winner: Seth Jarvis↓25pp28→3¢ · Polymarket
- May 252026 Conn Smythe Trophy Winner: Sebastian Aho↑23pp6→29¢ · Polymarket
- May 242026 Conn Smythe Trophy Winner: Seth Jarvis↑22pp3→25¢ · Polymarket
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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