What is the current probability for "Nice at Marseille: Totals"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 24¢ (24% implied probability) on Kalshi. It closes on May 10, 2026. 17 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Nice at Marseille: Totals"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 7924.1% and 559.9% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "Nice at Marseille: Totals"?

This market trades on Kalshi, a US-regulated prediction market exchange. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Nice at Marseille: Totals

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 24% probability that Nice at Marseille: Totals. This contract trades at 24¢ on Kalshi, closing May 10, 2026.

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24¢mid

Bid/Ask 21/27¢·Spread 6¢·Vol $0·OI $0·Closes May 10, 2026·17d remaining

KXLIGUE1TOTAL-26APR26OMNIC-4

7-day price12 snapshots · 2 regime

23¢21¢ current

Apr 2120¢Apr 23

Resolution rules

If Nice and Marseille collectively score more than 4.5 total goals in the Marseille vs Nice professional Ligue 1 soccer game originally scheduled for Apr 26, 2026 after 90 minutes plus stoppage time (does not include extra time or penalties), then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 7924.1%

IY (No) 559.9%

Adj IY 6415%

CRI 4

RV 1470%

VR 1.65

▶ Full indicator table (9)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	7924.1%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	559.9%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	6415%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	4	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
RV	1470%	Realized Volatility — annualized stddev from 48h price history
VR	1.65	Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead
IAR	0.3/h	Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h)
Overround	1.1%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family
LAS	0.19	Liquidity Availability Score

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.5

Spread

6¢

Computed

4/23/2026, 11:01:35 AM

Has orderbookIndicators computed 4/23/2026, 10:53:13 AM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXLIGUE1TOTAL-26APR26OMNIC-4 yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →Realized Volatility →

Resolution rules

Indicators

Regime

Trade

Related concepts

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