May for Nothing Ever Happens
Nothing Ever Happens: May is priced at 89¢ on Polymarket. Current book: 87¢ bid, 90¢ ask, 3¢ spread. This page tracks a standalone prediction-market contract.
Price history
89¢ current
+13¢Contract brief
This market will resolve to “Something” if any of the following conditions are met between market creation and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET: - US x Iran permanent peace deal - Iran leadership change - WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hits ↑ $150 - US military action against Cuba - US confirms that aliens exist - Russia invades a NATO country Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Nothing”. The full rules for this market can be found here: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH_MAY.pdf
Outcome
Nothing Ever Happens: May
Rank
Standalone
Leader
—
Range
—
Family volume
$178K
Identifier
0x3ce1f599...a106
May 28, 2026, 4:38 PM UTC · 1m ago
Implied probability
Bid
87¢
Ask
90¢
Spread
3¢
24h volume
$17K
Family rank
Standalone
Standalone contract
Closes
May 31, 2026
Family volume
$178K
Orderbook snapshot
87 / 90¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
This market will resolve to “Something” if any of the following conditions are met between market creation and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET: - US x Iran permanent peace deal - Iran leadership change - WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hits ↑ $150 - US military action against Cuba - US confirms that aliens exist - Russia invades a NATO country Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Nothing”. The full rules for this market can be found here: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH_MAY.pdf
Venue
Polymarket
Closes
May 31, 2026
Identifier
0x3ce1f599…a106
Event family
Nothing Ever Happens: May.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$178K
Outcomes
1
Highest price
Nothing Ever Happens: May 89¢
Current share
100%
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
Full indicator table
Odds pages
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SimpleFunctions context
Index, screen, query, and monitor.
Prediction Market Index
Market-wide volatility, geo risk, breadth, and activity around this contract.
Market Screener
Filter adjacent contracts by volume, expiry, IY, CRI, venue, and theme.
Event Probability API
Read 89% as a structured event probability object for agents and apps.
Realtime Data API
Prices, orderbooks, movement, heat, and liquidity indicators across venues.
World State API
Compact market-aware context packets for agent sessions and scheduled refresh.
Hedging Workflows
Map a thesis or exposure to candidate event markets and monitoring paths.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.