George Conway to win NY-12 Democratic Primary
George Conway is priced at 1¢ midpoint on Polymarket. Current book: 0¢ bid, 1¢ ask, 1¢ spread. This outcome ranks #4 of 16 inside NY-12 Democratic Primary Winner.
Price history
1¢ current
−23¢Contract brief
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NY-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 23, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Outcome
George Conway
Rank
#4 of 16
Leader
Micah Lasher 63¢
Range
0¢-63¢
Family volume
$378K
Identifier
0xd1dcc986...9b45
Jun 14, 2026, 6:38 PM UTC · 0m ago
Implied probability
Bid
0¢
Ask
1¢
Spread
1¢
24h volume
$848
Family rank
#4 of 16
16 outcomes · NY-12 Democratic Primary Winner
Closes
Jun 23, 2026
Family volume
$378K
Orderbook snapshot
0 / 1¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NY-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 23, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Venue
Polymarket
Closes
Jun 23, 2026
Identifier
0xd1dcc986…9b45
Event family
NY-12 Democratic Primary Winner.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$378K
Outcomes
16
Highest price
Micah Lasher 63¢
Current share
2%
Micah Lasher
polymarket · 0x3ff129c6f6737846a0b7912778da9c68f3766fbe4c8056224bd12de7e3ecfc10
Alex Bores
polymarket · 0x1af009052969324fe877b8339e173ae39c8c8c6b7db75a41cd091bfe4ec04265
Jack Schlossberg
polymarket · 0xd42612a6ea2c06736853604ee6287f64f94aca371144b1254a6a19fcb27b01ae
Brad Lander
polymarket · 0x259afdf3f12a61c6ac368b2648242a2e94b6caf59f936453320f99f464987b7d
Scott Stringer
polymarket · 0xd141449a066191a2d5da1bf3592b03166f44b117040d1bf654af9aa786d47a65
Liz Krueger
polymarket · 0xd8463b0f21f0409ca387a5b27af12aa564021022a28752ddd45f13044d7cff4f
Lina Khan
polymarket · 0x06008a6094638fc298e8584f0480e91912484e1495c453fb633703b1123a0319
Julie Menin
polymarket · 0xc8aeb76f86dca7a268761a448886c92e8cdb5ae8e4f3b0cbd27a4d6543e719c5
Chelsea Clinton
polymarket · 0x148c4361843c17eb67e73a1959636a3abe00a1b7bce74373f455416cf08be343
Brad Hoylman-Sigal
polymarket · 0xd9f75a28eb0c3fc244e6705515389405c1fb571279ab4e868b3dba481a93ff51
Keith Powers
polymarket · 0xc38a6c93900b044c012101b94beb87b5f91e7b663d2ad649fc1c1705ecbbb93a
Cameron Kasky
polymarket · 0x74d26fda5f74ce870cba8688df741d844a31e163ccf5bde2cd4131d37bf0e6ad
George Conway
polymarket · 0xd1dcc98673debc97919f9dd8584bfa16ee8f37996d78c24679f0cf4045a99b45
Carolyn Maloney
polymarket · 0x1a42c8f234fc67eeb2ef2956ae76626bb0c237ba3eb528eafc57ecee4da7dc6e
Erik Bottcher
polymarket · 0x19aabab6291e74f8a7772d6af05ec36eb9f761a424e63db89ee9df20e2552006
Liam Elkind
polymarket · 0x34b4e1972eab434a3bc0a04a61ce5583a9ac1eafe4ccca737dba874b3e03d201
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.409
Observability
medium
Event type
political
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
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