Will Micah Lasher be the democratic nominee for NY-12?

Micah Lasher is priced at a near coin-flip 49¢ despite extremely elevated implied yields (500-636%) driven by the compressed 65-day timeframe to the June 23 primary, suggesting significant uncertainty in a competitive NY-12 Democratic race. The market has shown notable volatility with a 305% realized volatility and a 9-cent price surge over seven days (43¢ to 52¢), though current liquidity of $17.1M in open interest with a 6¢ spread provides reasonable depth for a district-level primary contract. The 1.3 info arrivals per hour and neutral regime indicate active candidate developments are still shaping trader positioning ahead of the imminent nomination deadline.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NY-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 23, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

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