July 31, 2026 · OpenAI IPO by
July 31, 2026 is priced at 2¢ on Polymarket. Current book: 2¢ bid, 3¢ ask, 1¢ spread. This outcome ranks #4 of 5 inside OpenAI IPO by...?.
Price history
2¢ current
−23¢Contract brief
This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by the listed date ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange. If OpenAI is acquired by another company that is already public, this market will immediately resolve to "No." The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.
Outcome
July 31, 2026
Rank
#4 of 5
Leader
December 31, 2026 73¢
Range
1¢-73¢
Family volume
$1.4M
Identifier
0x1146a902...5833
Jun 8, 2026, 1:08 AM UTC · 43m ago
Implied probability
Bid
2¢
Ask
3¢
Spread
1¢
24h volume
$1K
Family rank
#4 of 5
5 outcomes · OpenAI IPO by...?
Closes
—
Family volume
$1.4M
Orderbook snapshot
2 / 3¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by the listed date ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange. If OpenAI is acquired by another company that is already public, this market will immediately resolve to "No." The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.
Venue
Polymarket
Closes
—
Identifier
0x1146a902…5833
Event family
OpenAI IPO by.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$1.4M
Outcomes
5
Highest price
December 31, 2026 73¢
Current share
3%
December 31, 2026
polymarket · 0x66f5b8203ee1c36b993af623fd7f9ef7271dd87b3aebf6df508048ad4b563432
September 30, 2026
polymarket · 0x23e52206ff8a49e4f097ac3b7f32826d930a0b6c76b7902a7858cf2183383c63
August 31, 2026
polymarket · 0x8e5b3cca5dd6b5ad77bb203644722ceb5b9d12bfe2dd1ab19d5efd9bf854d04c
July 31, 2026
polymarket · 0x1146a9020af0b4dafcba97375ac13f4dcc591b80c50efa7084973df14cc85833
June 30, 2026
polymarket · 0x753e6031044632c083fede2715235b69bb2596e37d34f6f19d2b6635d2d4dd58
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.432
Observability
medium
Event type
financial
Full indicator table
Odds pages
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.