Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026?
Prediction markets currently give a 35% probability that Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026?. This contract trades at 35¢ on Polymarket. The market has experienced significant bearish momentum, declining 14% over seven days to 35¢, suggesting growing skepticism about OpenAI's IPO timeline despite the extremely high 263% implied yield on the affirmative side.
Analysis
The market has experienced significant bearish momentum, declining 14% over seven days to 35¢, suggesting growing skepticism about OpenAI's IPO timeline despite the extremely high 263% implied yield on the affirmative side. The 309% realized volatility and 1.97 vol ratio indicate substantial price swings, though the tight 1¢ spread and $8.9M open interest provide reasonable liquidity for a binary event with roughly two years until expiration. The elevated yes-side yield relative to the no-side (263% vs 76%) reflects the market's perception of low probability, though the neutral regime score and 0.9/h information arrival rate suggest this pricing could shift rapidly with company announcements regarding IPO plans.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by the listed date ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange. If OpenAI is acquired by another company that is already public, this market will immediately resolve to "No." The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.
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sf trade 0x66f5b8203ee1c36b993af623fd7f9ef7271dd87b3aebf6df508048ad4b563432 yes 100