Will OpenAI go public?
Leader sits at 49% across 3 bound outcomes, runner-up at 17%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Outcomes
3
winner-take-all
Runner-up
17¢
Will Democrats win the 2026
Spread
32pp
contested
24h volume
$425K
liquid
Closes
Dec 31, 2026
94 days
Cross-venue
K15+P2
18pp gap
30-day trend
Cross-venue edge
Kalshi 31¢ · Polymarket 49¢ · 18pp spread
Buy on Kalshi (31¢, 15 contracts) and sell on Polymarket (49¢) — assuming both contracts settle on the same outcome.
Bracket families
7 clusters across 20 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 0% of their title tokens — “Will Democrats win the 2026 national House popular vote by at least” vs “Lead Bank in OpenAI's IPO”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Will Democrats win the 2026 national House popular vote by at least
Will Democrats win the 2026 national House popular vote by at least 10 percentage points?
KXHOUSEPOPVOTEMARGIND-26NOV03-AL10
Will Democrats win the 2026 national House popular vote by at least 6 percentage points?
KXHOUSEPOPVOTEMARGIND-26NOV03-AL6
Will Democrats win the 2026 national House popular vote by at least 2 percentage points?
KXHOUSEPOPVOTEMARGIND-26NOV03-AL2
Will Democrats win the 2026 national House popular vote by at least 8 percentage points?
KXHOUSEPOPVOTEMARGIND-26NOV03-AL8
Will Democrats win the 2026 national House popular vote by at least 4 percentage points?
KXHOUSEPOPVOTEMARGIND-26NOV03-AL4
Will Democrats win the 2026 national House popular vote by at least 12 percentage points?
KXHOUSEPOPVOTEMARGIND-26NOV03-AL12
Will Democrats win the 2026 national House popular vote by at least 16 percentage points?
KXHOUSEPOPVOTEMARGIND-26NOV03-AL16
Will Democrats win the 2026 national House popular vote by at least 14 percentage points?
KXHOUSEPOPVOTEMARGIND-26NOV03-AL14
Cluster 2
Lead Bank in OpenAI's IPO
Lead Bank in OpenAI's IPO?: Goldman Sachs
0xebe00b…42c4
Lead Bank in OpenAI's IPO?: Morgan Stanley
0xa4afd2…0805
Lead Bank in OpenAI's IPO?: Deutsche Bank
0x1d83eb…ec58
Lead Bank in OpenAI's IPO?: JPMorgan
0xc56e3f…51f7
Lead Bank in OpenAI's IPO?: Barclays
0x05bc3b…c902
Cluster 3
When will Databricks officially announce an IPO
Cluster 4
Will Iran's score in the Economist Intelligence Unit's Democracy Index be at least 6 in the 2026 edition
Cluster 5
Will Brooklyn Beckham be seen in public with David or Victoria Beckham this year
Will Brooklyn Beckham be seen in public with David or Victoria Beckham this year?
KXPUBLICBECKHAM-27JAN01
Cluster 6
When will Stripe IPO
When will Stripe IPO?
KXSTRIPEIPO-27JUN01
Cluster 7
Will China announce looser rare-earth export curbs to the U.S. in Sep 2026
Will China announce looser rare-earth export curbs to the U.S. in Sep 2026?
KXCHINARARE-26-26OCT01
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: just now.