Will OpenAI go public?
Leader sits at 75% across 4 bound outcomes, runner-up at 37%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
December 31, 2026
Outcomes
4
winner-take-all
Runner-up
37¢
September 30, 2026
Spread
38pp
contested
24h volume
$2K
modest
Closes
Dec 31, 2026
207 days
Venue
Polymarket
4 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
OpenAI IPO by
What moved the line
- Jun 1September 30, 2026↑8pp33→41¢ · Polymarket
- May 31December 31, 2026↑3pp69→72¢ · Polymarket
- May 31September 30, 2026↑3pp30→33¢ · Polymarket
- Jun 3September 30, 2026↓3pp40→37¢ · Polymarket
Recently closed in ai tech
- How many SpaceX launches in May?: 14 or morelast 90% · 5d
- Largest Company end of May?: NVIDIAlast 97% · 6d
- What will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit in May 2026?: ↑ $240last 3% · 7d
- Anthropic valued higher than OpenAI in 2026last 90% · 9d
- Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above ___ end of April?: $200last 5% · 9d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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AI Model Race Intensifies: Claude Mythos Release Jumps 25 Cents
Anthropic is the favorite for best AI model in June at 85 cents, but the big story is the Claude Mythos release timeline. The market for a Mythos release by June 15 surged 25 cents to 46 cents, while the Claude 5 release by June 30 rose 8 cents to 37 cents. This signals a major AI release cycle is imminent.
AI Model Race Intensifies as Anthropic Gains on OpenAI
The AI leadership race is heating up with Anthropic's Claude 5 release expectation jumping 16¢ to 38¢ for a June 30 launch, while OpenAI's GPT-5.6 probability dropped 8¢ to 79¢. Markets now favor Anthropic to have the best AI model by end of June at 84¢. The 'Best AI in Jun' contract trades at 63¢ for Anthropic vs 16¢ for Google.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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