Will OpenAI go public?
Leader sits at 49% across 3 bound outcomes, runner-up at 17%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Outcomes
3
winner-take-all
Runner-up
17¢
Will a human case of Ebola d
Spread
32pp
contested
24h volume
$113K
liquid
Closes
Dec 31, 2026
120 days
Cross-venue
K15+P3
20pp gap
30-day trend
Cross-venue edge
Kalshi 13¢ · Polymarket 33¢ · 20pp spread
Buy on Kalshi (13¢, 15 contracts) and sell on Polymarket (33¢) — assuming both contracts settle on the same outcome.
Bracket families
3 clusters across 20 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 0% of their title tokens — “Will a human case of Ebola disease” vs “Lead Bank in OpenAI's IPO”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Will a human case of Ebola disease
Will a human case of Ebola disease in United States be reported before Oct 1, 2026?
KXEBOLACOUNTRY-OCT26-USA
Will a human case of Ebola disease in South Sudan be reported before Oct 1, 2026?
KXEBOLACOUNTRY-OCT26-SUD
Will a human case of Ebola disease in Central African Republic be reported before Oct 1, 2026?
KXEBOLACOUNTRY-OCT26-CAR
Will a human case of Ebola disease in Republic of the Congo be reported before Oct 1, 2026?
KXEBOLACOUNTRY-OCT26-RCON
Will a human case of Ebola disease in Burundi be reported before Oct 1, 2026?
KXEBOLACOUNTRY-OCT26-BUR
Will a human case of Ebola disease in Canada be reported before Oct 1, 2026?
KXEBOLACOUNTRY-OCT26-CANA
Will a human case of Ebola disease in Angola be reported before Oct 1, 2026?
KXEBOLACOUNTRY-OCT26-ANG
Will a human case of Ebola disease in Rwanda be reported before Oct 1, 2026?
KXEBOLACOUNTRY-OCT26-RWA
Will a human case of Ebola disease in Nigeria be reported before Oct 1, 2026?
KXEBOLACOUNTRY-OCT26-NIGE
Will a human case of Ebola disease in China be reported before Oct 1, 2026?
KXEBOLACOUNTRY-OCT26-CHI
Will a human case of Ebola disease in Somalia be reported before Oct 1, 2026?
KXEBOLACOUNTRY-OCT26-SOM
Will a human case of Ebola disease in Kenya be reported before Oct 1, 2026?
KXEBOLACOUNTRY-OCT26-KEN
Will a human case of Ebola disease in Tanzania be reported before Oct 1, 2026?
KXEBOLACOUNTRY-OCT26-TANZ
Will a human case of Ebola disease in Ethiopia be reported before Oct 1, 2026?
KXEBOLACOUNTRY-OCT26-ETHI
Cluster 2
Lead Bank in OpenAI's IPO
Lead Bank in OpenAI's IPO?: Goldman Sachs
0xebe00b…42c4
Lead Bank in OpenAI's IPO?: Deutsche Bank
0x1d83eb…ec58
Lead Bank in OpenAI's IPO?: Morgan Stanley
0xa4afd2…0805
Lead Bank in OpenAI's IPO?: JPMorgan
0xc56e3f…51f7
Lead Bank in OpenAI's IPO?: Barclays
0x05bc3b…c902
Cluster 3
New pandemic by 2026
New pandemic by 2026?
KXNEWOUTBREAKEBOLA-26
What moved the line
- Aug 28Will a human case of Ebola disease in United States be reported before Oct 1, 2026?↓8pp11→3¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 27Will a human case of Ebola disease in South Sudan be reported before Oct 1, 2026?↑8pp29→37¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 1Will a human case of Ebola disease in South Sudan be reported before Oct 1, 2026?↓6pp39→33¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 2Will a human case of Ebola disease in United States be reported before Oct 1, 2026?↑5pp4→9¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 28Will a human case of Ebola disease in South Sudan be reported before Oct 1, 2026?↑5pp37→42¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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AI Model Race: GPT-6 Release a Coin Flip, Astra Heavily Favored
OpenAI's GPT-6 release before Oct 2026 is at 47¢, while its Astra model is at 83¢. Anthropic's Mythos is a long-shot at 9¢. Waymo expansion is near certain, reflecting broader autonomous driving confidence.
AI Arms Race: Market Bets on GPT-6 Release and Anthropic's Lead
AI tech markets are buzzing with speculation on the next major model release from OpenAI, Google, and xAI. The most traded contracts focus on whether OpenAI will release GPT-6 by October 2026 (40¢) and the race to be the 'Best AI' by year-end. NVIDIA compute pricing is also a popular sub-theme.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: just now.