Will OpenAI go public?
Leader sits at 49% across 3 bound outcomes, runner-up at 17%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Outcomes
3
winner-take-all
Runner-up
17¢
Will the Total Public Debt o
Spread
32pp
contested
24h volume
$26K
liquid
Closes
Dec 31, 2026
161 days
Cross-venue
K4+P5
85pp gap
30-day trend
Cross-venue edge
Kalshi 99¢ · Polymarket 14¢ · 85pp spread
Buy on Polymarket (14¢, 5 contracts) and sell on Kalshi (99¢) — assuming both contracts settle on the same outcome.
Bracket families
2 clusters across 20 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 0% of their title tokens — “Will the Total Public Debt on July 31, 2026 be above 39” vs “Lead Bank in OpenAI's IPO”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Will the Total Public Debt on July 31, 2026 be above 39
Will the Total Public Debt on July 31, 2026 be above 39.24T?
KXTRUFPDEBT-26JUL31-T39.24
Will the Total Public Debt on July 31, 2026 be above 39.69T?
KXTRUFPDEBT-26JUL31-T39.69
Will the Total Public Debt on July 31, 2026 be above 39.64T?
KXTRUFPDEBT-26JUL31-T39.64
Will the Total Public Debt on July 31, 2026 be above 39.59T?
KXTRUFPDEBT-26JUL31-T39.59
Will the Total Public Debt on July 31, 2026 be above 39.94T?
KXTRUFPDEBT-26JUL31-T39.94
Will the Total Public Debt on July 31, 2026 be above 39.89T?
KXTRUFPDEBT-26JUL31-T39.89
Will the Total Public Debt on July 31, 2026 be above 39.84T?
KXTRUFPDEBT-26JUL31-T39.84
Will the Total Public Debt on July 31, 2026 be above 39.79T?
KXTRUFPDEBT-26JUL31-T39.79
Will the Total Public Debt on July 31, 2026 be above 39.74T?
KXTRUFPDEBT-26JUL31-T39.74
Will the Total Public Debt on July 31, 2026 be above 39.54T?
KXTRUFPDEBT-26JUL31-T39.54
Will the Total Public Debt on July 31, 2026 be above 39.49T?
KXTRUFPDEBT-26JUL31-T39.49
Will the Total Public Debt on July 31, 2026 be above 39.44T?
KXTRUFPDEBT-26JUL31-T39.44
Will the Total Public Debt on July 31, 2026 be above 39.39T?
KXTRUFPDEBT-26JUL31-T39.39
Will the Total Public Debt on July 31, 2026 be above 39.34T?
KXTRUFPDEBT-26JUL31-T39.34
Will the Total Public Debt on July 31, 2026 be above 39.29T?
KXTRUFPDEBT-26JUL31-T39.29
Cluster 2
Lead Bank in OpenAI's IPO
Lead Bank in OpenAI's IPO?: Deutsche Bank
0x1d83eb…ec58
Lead Bank in OpenAI's IPO?: Goldman Sachs
0xebe00b…42c4
Lead Bank in OpenAI's IPO?: Morgan Stanley
0xa4afd2…0805
Lead Bank in OpenAI's IPO?: JPMorgan
0xc56e3f…51f7
Lead Bank in OpenAI's IPO?: Barclays
0x05bc3b…c902
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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