Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $750B and $1T at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027?

This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite $4.1M open interest, and the 35¢ spread represents a massive 135% bid-ask gap that makes meaningful price discovery impossible. The 26¢ price implies only a 26% probability of OpenAI reaching a $750B-$1T valuation at IPO, yet the asymmetric implied yields (207.5% for Yes vs. 16.5% for No) and extraordinary 2,386% realized volatility suggest the market is pricing in substantial uncertainty about both IPO timing and valuation outcomes rather than genuine conviction. With 624 days to expiration and an information arrival rate of 5.3 events per hour, this appears to be a speculative position with minimal recent trading activity (price fell from 34¢ to 26¢ over seven days), making it unreliable for directional bets until liquidity improves.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading. If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027". Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day. If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used. In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.

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