OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
Leader sits at 42% across 14 bound outcomes, runner-up at 42%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
1.5T+
Outcomes
14
winner-take-all
Runner-up
42¢
1.5T+
Spread
0pp
contested
24h volume
$4K
modest
Closes
Dec 31, 2027
571 days
Venue
Polymarket
14 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap: No IPO by December 31, 2026
0x3849e1…dc5e
OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap: 1.5T+
0x4a8005…805b
OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap: 1.5T+
0x258cf8…0260
OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap: 1.25T–1.5T
0xa28178…7c09
OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap: 500–750B
0x3f9f68…1ed3
OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap: 750B–1T
0xb77424…0cf4
OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap: <500B
0x08b391…ca04
OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap: 1T–1.25T
0x602a7a…de13
OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap: No IPO by December 31, 2027
0x761b43…e9b8
OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap: <500B
0x94f5db…584f
OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap: 750B–1T
0x8e2476…eef4
OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap: 1.25T–1.5T
0x0d0365…422e
OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap: 500–750B
0x59273d…a09e
OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap: 1T–1.25T
0x3d876f…d8c3
Analysis
This probability reflects that traders believe OpenAI will not complete an initial public offering before the end of 2026—about 8 months away. At 72%, the market is pricing this outcome as more likely than an IPO completion, though not overwhelming. The timing hinges on OpenAI's profitability trajectory, regulatory approval timelines, and management decisions about remaining private. Current signals include whether the company files S-1 paperwork, meets SEC milestones, and signals public-market readiness. The main catalyst is any formal SEC filing or official public statement about IPO plans. Until concrete regulatory action or company announcements emerge, traders are treating a 2026 IPO as unlikely but possible.
- ›No S-1 registration statement has been publicly filed as of early May 2026, suggesting IPO process is not advanced
- ›OpenAI's valuation trajectory and profitability path would determine market appetite and timeline for public offering
- ›Historical precedent: comparable AI/software companies typically take 12–18 months from S-1 filing to IPO close
- ›SEC review and market conditions could accelerate or delay an IPO even if filing occurs imminently
- ›December 31, 2026 deadline leaves narrow window; any delay into 2027 resolves this contract negatively
What moved the line
- Jun 41.5T+↓9pp30→21¢ · Polymarket
- Jun 61T–1.25T↓8pp15→7¢ · Polymarket
- Jun 1750B–1T↑8pp14→22¢ · Polymarket
- Jun 6750B–1T↑8pp21→29¢ · Polymarket
- Jun 21.25T–1.5T↓8pp24→16¢ · Polymarket
Recently closed in ai tech
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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