Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $1.25T and $1.5T at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027?

The market is pricing OpenAI's IPO valuation landing in the $1.25T-$1.5T range at just 14%, implying traders view this as a relatively narrow band within a likely wider range of potential outcomes. The 359.5% annualized yield on the "Yes" side combined with extremely thin 24-hour volume of $7.79 and a 10¢ spread suggests low liquidity is inflating the risk premium, making this price potentially unreliable for directional conviction. The 579% realized volatility and sharp 3¢ decline over seven days indicate significant uncertainty around both IPO timing and valuation, though the 624-day timeframe provides ample room for sentiment shifts as OpenAI's business trajectory becomes clearer.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading. If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027". Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day. If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used. In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.

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