Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $750B and $1T at market close on IPO day?

This market prices OpenAI's IPO valuation between $750B-$1T at just 7%, implying the market expects either no IPO by year-end 2026 or a valuation outside this range—likely higher given OpenAI's recent funding rounds valued it near $80B-$120B. The extreme 6560% implied yield on "Yes" reflects the massive asymmetry between the 7¢ price and potential payout, though the low 24-hour volume of $80 against $21.3M open interest signals illiquidity that could amplify volatility. With 74 days to expiry and a neutral regime score, the modest 1¢ price movement over seven days suggests limited conviction, though the 13 cliff risk index warrants caution around the December 31 deadline for IPO occurrence.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading. If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2026". Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day. If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used. In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.

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