Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $1.25T and $1.5T at market close on IPO day?
Prediction markets currently give a 7% probability that Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $1.25T and $1.5T at market close on IPO day?. This contract trades at 7¢ on Polymarket, closing June 30, 2026. This market prices OpenAI's IPO valuation in a narrow $1.25T-$1.5T band at just 6¢, implying only a 6% probability despite the company's reported $157B valuation in recent funding rounds—suggesting traders view this specific range as unlikely relative to either higher or lower IPO outcomes.
Analysis
This market prices OpenAI's IPO valuation in a narrow $1.25T-$1.5T band at just 6¢, implying only a 6% probability despite the company's reported $157B valuation in recent funding rounds—suggesting traders view this specific range as unlikely relative to either higher or lower IPO outcomes. The extreme 7726% implied yield on "Yes" reflects the massive payoff potential if the narrow band is hit, but the $66 daily volume and $17.7K open interest indicate minimal liquidity, raising concerns about price reliability and execution risk. With 74 days to expiry and a cliff risk index of 16, the market faces binary IPO timing uncertainty, though the recent price decline from 7¢ to 6¢ suggests weakening conviction in this valuation band.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading. If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2026". Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day. If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used. In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
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sf trade 0xa281783fc73b1a6927a301ee34cd90795470dc64b500673e445ba5e54f697c09 yes 100