Australia to win Paraguay vs Australia
Australia is priced at 49¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 25¢ bid, 28¢ ask, 3¢ spread. This outcome ranks #3 of 3 inside Paraguay vs Australia Winner.
Price history
49¢ current
+43¢Contract brief
If Australia wins the Paraguay vs Australia professional FIFA World Cup soccer game originally scheduled for Jun 25, 2026 after 90 minutes plus stoppage time (does not include extra time or penalties), then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Australia
Rank
#3 of 3
Leader
Paraguay 42¢
Range
25¢-42¢
Family volume
$55
Identifier
KXWCGAME-26JUN25PARAUS-AUS
May 28, 2026, 6:08 PM UTC · 4m ago
Implied probability
Bid
25¢
Ask
28¢
Spread
3¢
Reported volume
$38
Family rank
#3 of 3
3 outcomes · Paraguay vs Australia Winner
Closes
Jul 10, 2026
Family volume
$55
Orderbook snapshot
25 / 28¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If Australia wins the Paraguay vs Australia professional FIFA World Cup soccer game originally scheduled for Jun 25, 2026 after 90 minutes plus stoppage time (does not include extra time or penalties), then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Jul 10, 2026
Identifier
KXWCGAME-26JUN25PARAUS-AUS
Event family
Paraguay vs Australia Winner.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$55
Outcomes
3
Highest price
Paraguay 42¢
Current share
0%
Browse this series
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
Full indicator table
Related readings
Matched from SimpleFunctions blog, opinions, technical guides, concepts, and learn pages.
Kalshi vs Polymarket: Mechanics, Fees, Regulation, Liquidity (2026)
Side-by-side comparison of Kalshi and Polymarket in 2026. Fee math, calibration data, withdrawal speed, and a decision tree for picking the right venue.
Kalshi vs Polymarket: Which Prediction Market Should You Trade?
In-depth comparison of Kalshi and Polymarket for prediction market traders. Regulatory structure, liquidity, fees, API tooling, and cross-venue trading with SimpleFunctions.
Information Finance Has Arrived: A Material Map of Prediction Markets in Q2 2026
Combined Kalshi + Polymarket volume hit $66B in just four months of 2026 — already greater than the entire 2025 industry total. Bernstein projects $1T by 2030. Two venues hold 95% of US share. The distribution layer fragmented across nine retail surfaces. AI agents are 30% of Polymarket wallet activ
Implied Yield vs Raw Probability: Why Bond-Adjacent Prediction Markets Need a Different Lens
Why fixed-income-adjacent prediction-market contracts need to be priced in implied yield, not raw probability, with two real Kalshi Fed-decision contracts as a case study.
Kalshi vs Polymarket: A Developer's Comparison of APIs, Orderbooks, and Liquidity
Data-driven comparison of Kalshi and Polymarket APIs, orderbooks, rate limits, and liquidity. Code examples for building on both prediction markets.
Maker / Taker Regime in Prediction Markets: How to Read the Orderbook State
Three regime states (maker-dominated, taker-dominated, neutral) and how to read which one a Kalshi or Polymarket contract is in. Strategy follows regime, not thesis.
SimpleFunctions context
Index, screen, query, and monitor.
Prediction Market Index
Market-wide volatility, geo risk, breadth, and activity around this contract.
Market Screener
Filter adjacent contracts by volume, expiry, IY, CRI, venue, and theme.
Event Probability API
Read 49% as a structured event probability object for agents and apps.
Realtime Data API
Prices, orderbooks, movement, heat, and liquidity indicators across venues.
World State API
Compact market-aware context packets for agent sessions and scheduled refresh.
Hedging Workflows
Map a thesis or exposure to candidate event markets and monitoring paths.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.