Paraguay to win Paraguay vs Australia
Paraguay is priced at 40¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 42¢ bid, 57¢ ask, 15¢ spread. This outcome ranks #1 of 3 inside Paraguay vs Australia Winner.
Price history
40¢ current
Contract brief
If Paraguay wins the Paraguay vs Australia professional FIFA World Cup soccer game originally scheduled for Jun 25, 2026 after 90 minutes plus stoppage time (does not include extra time or penalties), then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Paraguay
Rank
#1 of 3
Leader
Paraguay 42¢
Range
20¢-42¢
Family volume
$7
Identifier
KXWCGAME-26JUN25PARAUS-PAR
May 24, 2026, 8:08 PM UTC · 28m ago
Implied probability
Bid
42¢
Ask
57¢
Spread
15¢
Reported volume
$11
Family rank
#1 of 3
3 outcomes · Paraguay vs Australia Winner
Closes
Jul 10, 2026
Family volume
$7
Orderbook snapshot
42 / 57¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If Paraguay wins the Paraguay vs Australia professional FIFA World Cup soccer game originally scheduled for Jun 25, 2026 after 90 minutes plus stoppage time (does not include extra time or penalties), then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Jul 10, 2026
Identifier
KXWCGAME-26JUN25PARAUS-PAR
Event family
Paraguay vs Australia Winner.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$7
Outcomes
3
Highest price
Paraguay 42¢
Current share
0%
Browse this series
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
Full indicator table
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.