Pep Guardiola out as Manchester City manager by the end of 2026?
Prediction markets currently give a 41% probability that Pep Guardiola out as Manchester City manager by the end of 2026?. This contract trades at 41¢ on Polymarket, closing January 1, 2027. The 55¢ price reflects meaningful uncertainty about Guardiola's tenure through end-2026, with the "No" side offering substantially higher implied yield (171.8% vs 115.0%), suggesting the market skews toward his continued employment despite the elevated probability.
Analysis
The 55¢ price reflects meaningful uncertainty about Guardiola's tenure through end-2026, with the "No" side offering substantially higher implied yield (171.8% vs 115.0%), suggesting the market skews toward his continued employment despite the elevated probability. With only $561 in open interest and $200 daily volume, liquidity is thin, making the 7¢ spread relatively wide and creating potential execution challenges for larger positions. The recent 3¢ price decline over seven days combined with 260 days to expiry and low cliff risk indicates a stable, if illiquid, market where the outcome remains genuinely contested rather than reflecting imminent departure concerns.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Pep Guardiola permanently ceases to be the manager of Manchester City before December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Temporary absences (including but not limited: to medical leave, compassionate leave, suspension, or touchline bans) will not be considered. An announcement of Pep Guardiola’s resignation/firing before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/firing goes into effect. This market's primary resolution source will be official information from Manchester City and/or Pep Guardiola. However, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade 0x6695d4275bc981644db15f57032fc81b9b7aba6f7eb7f392264381ff099b800a yes 100