O/U 4.5 for Peru vs. Spain
O/U 4.5 is priced at 20¢ on Polymarket. Current book: 19¢ bid, 21¢ ask, 2¢ spread. This outcome ranks #8 of 11 inside Peru vs. Spain - More Markets.
Price history
20¢ current
+2¢Contract brief
In the upcoming FIFA International Friendlies game between Peru and Spain, scheduled for June 8 at 10:00 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Over" if Peru and Spain combine to score 5 or more goals in this game. If the combined total is less than 5, this market will resolve to "Under". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50–50. If the game is started but not completed, this market will resolve according to the official final score published on fifa.com. This market refers only to the outcome within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.
Outcome
O/U 4.5
Rank
#8 of 11
Leader
O/U 0.5 97¢
Range
2¢-97¢
Family volume
$2K
Identifier
0xa1a4d62c...e622
Jun 7, 2026, 9:08 PM UTC · 27m ago
Implied probability
Bid
19¢
Ask
21¢
Spread
2¢
24h volume
$14
Family rank
#8 of 11
11 outcomes · Peru vs. Spain - More Markets
Closes
Jun 9, 2026
Family volume
$2K
Orderbook snapshot
19 / 21¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
In the upcoming FIFA International Friendlies game between Peru and Spain, scheduled for June 8 at 10:00 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Over" if Peru and Spain combine to score 5 or more goals in this game. If the combined total is less than 5, this market will resolve to "Under". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50–50. If the game is started but not completed, this market will resolve according to the official final score published on fifa.com. This market refers only to the outcome within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.
Venue
Polymarket
Closes
Jun 9, 2026
Identifier
0xa1a4d62c…e622
Event family
Peru vs. Spain - More Markets.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$2K
Outcomes
11
Highest price
O/U 0.5 97¢
Current share
1%
O/U 0.5
polymarket · 0x282bdbdb4964671f90cde0906649fb740f06a151c6c7324d5a6658adc9156c91
O/U 1.5
polymarket · 0xb3238bccae6f1e3262f356972b6e7db5e444521e2cc3dc4c006bbabe7352bc15
Spain (-1.5)
polymarket · 0xda6c64ae9f6203963fc5ac7c8bcd78eea431e4869d193d020ac4628abfe3d492
O/U 2.5
polymarket · 0xa12e990707e693715e5983d41dda585d422a7c8455469cf234962d4ca352cbf2
O/U 3.5
polymarket · 0x3aa499e1feb55fd262348d179df9dbd0a7b89a8837ee333912f383bd5a9e93b3
Spain (-2.5)
polymarket · 0x0eef30ef431c8b637b6d8ba3acb0babe24252fee65ec407f952b1ca61f5f2652
Both Teams to Score
polymarket · 0x8992e47a30d3c9330e3adbe8b468e0b81fea5060619653477c213e985db89ff8
O/U 4.5
polymarket · 0xa1a4d62c4d191f39e1535b723dd3fd1ec318e8b6c66d9d19a9e63934a105e622
O/U 5.5
polymarket · 0x83d76e66110a4fb197a022638f24e4fa9f32fadc92094c00f950c1b87c5d0188
Peru (-2.5)
polymarket · 0x92ddd4e6d816e32373532d0b07b6620db2c309d2167dfcf884a8043ba2e2a14a
Peru (-1.5)
polymarket · 0xc0244c1c1b322c72bc1f604a0bde343e33fb793d4411940f46ca3053d193359e
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Odds pages
Related prediction questions
Related readings
Matched from SimpleFunctions blog, opinions, technical guides, concepts, and learn pages.
Resolution Risk Premium: Pricing the Rule, Not the Outcome
When the resolution rule is fuzzy, the price is the market's estimate of how the rule will be interpreted, not the outcome's probability. Three case studies and the discount math.
Prediction market liquidity: why depth matters more than volume for serious traders
Why orderbook depth matters more than volume for prediction market traders. Real Kalshi examples, liquidity scoring framework, and how to avoid slippage.
Information Finance Has Arrived: A Material Map of Prediction Markets in Q2 2026
Combined Kalshi + Polymarket volume hit $66B in just four months of 2026 — already greater than the entire 2025 industry total. Bernstein projects $1T by 2030. Two venues hold 95% of US share. The distribution layer fragmented across nine retail surfaces. AI agents are 30% of Polymarket wallet activ
Liquidity Migration Across Resolution: Where the Money Goes When a Market Closes
When a flagship prediction market closes, the capital that was in it migrates to next-period siblings, adjacent categories, or off the venue entirely. Three migration patterns and the receiving-market opportunity.
Liquidity Availability Is the Real Edge in Prediction Markets
Implied yield, cliff risk, and overround all describe what to trade. Liquidity Availability Score describes whether the orderbook can absorb the trade. Why LAS is the indicator that decides who actually books P&L.
The Overround Illusion: Why EE > 0 Isn't Free Money
Event Overround at +0.06 looks like a 6% guaranteed return. After fees and slippage, the trade is usually negative. The interesting use of EE is changes over time, not the raw level.
SimpleFunctions context
Index, screen, query, and monitor.
Prediction Market Index
Market-wide volatility, geo risk, breadth, and activity around this contract.
Market Screener
Filter adjacent contracts by volume, expiry, IY, CRI, venue, and theme.
Event Probability API
Read 20% as a structured event probability object for agents and apps.
Realtime Data API
Prices, orderbooks, movement, heat, and liquidity indicators across venues.
World State API
Compact market-aware context packets for agent sessions and scheduled refresh.
Hedging Workflows
Map a thesis or exposure to candidate event markets and monitoring paths.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.