SimpleFunctions
Winner-take-all answer·11 source contracts·Polymarket 11·refreshed just now·Closes Jun 9, 2026 · 1d

Peru vs. Spain - More Markets

Leader sits at 97% across 11 bound outcomes, runner-up at 83%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.

Leader probability

97%

O/U 0.5

runner-up 83¢leader 97¢

Outcomes

11

winner-take-all

Runner-up

83¢

O/U 1.5

Spread

14pp

contested

24h volume

$1K

modest

Closes

Jun 9, 2026

1 days

Venue

Polymarket

11 bound

30-day trend

0%50%100%-30d-3w-2w-1wtodayO/U 0.5: 66% (2 days, 2 points)O/U 0.5: 66% on 2026-06-07O/U 1.5: 82% on 2026-06-07Spain (-1.5): 60% on 2026-06-07
O/U 0.566¢O/U 1.582¢Spain (-1.5)60¢
Top 3 candidates by current price · 2d

Bracket family

How the bracket ladder is priced.

Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.

What moved the line

  • Jun 7O/U 5.520pp5030¢ · Polymarket
  • Jun 7O/U 0.517pp4966¢ · Polymarket
  • Jun 7Both Teams to Score3pp4441¢ · Polymarket

Recently closed in general

These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

More like this

Adjacent prediction questions.

How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.

Last updated on this page: just now.