What is the current probability for "PGA Championship: Will Bryson DeChambeau finish top 5?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 63¢ (63% implied probability) on Kalshi. It closes on June 14, 2026. 51 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "PGA Championship: Will Bryson DeChambeau finish top 5?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 422.7% and 1225.5% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "PGA Championship: Will Bryson DeChambeau finish top 5?"?

This market trades on Kalshi, a US-regulated prediction market exchange. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

PGA Championship: Will Bryson DeChambeau finish top 5?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 63% probability that PGA Championship: Will Bryson DeChambeau finish top 5?. This contract trades at 63¢ on Kalshi, closing June 14, 2026. This market shows extreme illiquidity with only $57 open interest and zero 24-hour volume, making the 63¢ spread unreliable for actual execution.

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63¢

Bid/Ask 0/63¢·Spread 63¢·Vol $6·OI $63·Closes Jun 14, 2026·51d remaining

KXPGATOP5-PGC26-BDEC

Analysis

5d ago

This market shows extreme illiquidity with only $57 open interest and zero 24-hour volume, making the 63¢ spread unreliable for actual execution. The 57¢ price implies DeChambeau has a 57% chance of a top-5 finish at the 2026 PGA Championship, but the astronomical implied yields (492% for Yes, 864% for No) reflect the thin liquidity rather than genuine edge—these yields are artifacts of minimal order book depth. With 56 days to expiry and a neutral regime, this market lacks sufficient trading activity to be actionable.

Resolution rules

If Bryson DeChambeau finishes in the top 5 (including ties) in the 2026 PGA Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 422.7%

IY (No) 1225.5%

Adj IY 613%

CRI 2

Overround 2.7%

▶ Full indicator table (5)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	422.7%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	1225.5%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	613%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	2	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
Overround	2.7%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.5

Spread

63¢

Computed

4/24/2026, 10:56:13 AM

Indicators computed 4/24/2026, 10:53:43 AM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXPGATOP5-PGC26-BDEC yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →