PGA Championship: Will Cameron Young finish top 10?
Prediction markets currently give a 27% probability that PGA Championship: Will Cameron Young finish top 10?. This contract trades at 27¢ on Kalshi, closing June 14, 2026. This micro-liquidity market shows extreme yield asymmetry with a 1984% implied yield on Yes contracts against just 220% on No, reflecting severe illiquidity ($1 open interest) and a massive 59¢ bid-ask spread that dwarfs the 30¢ midpoint.
Analysis
This micro-liquidity market shows extreme yield asymmetry with a 1984% implied yield on Yes contracts against just 220% on No, reflecting severe illiquidity ($1 open interest) and a massive 59¢ bid-ask spread that dwarfs the 30¢ midpoint. The market has declined from 25¢ to 30¢ over seven days with realized volatility exceeding 1200%, suggesting sporadic, uninformed trades are driving outsized price swings rather than fundamental information arrival (2.5/h is modest). With 55 days until the June 2026 PGA Championship and a Cliff Risk Index of 3, this appears to be a thinly-traded novelty contract where any meaningful position would face severe execution friction.
Resolution rules
If Cameron Young finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 PGA Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXPGATOP10-PGC26-CAME yes 100