PGA Championship: Will Justin Rose finish top 5?
Prediction markets currently give a 19% probability that PGA Championship: Will Justin Rose finish top 5?. This contract trades at 19¢ on Kalshi, closing June 14, 2026. This market shows extreme illiquidity with only $27 open interest and zero 24-hour volume, making the 63¢ price potentially unreliable for actual trading.
Analysis
This market shows extreme illiquidity with only $27 open interest and zero 24-hour volume, making the 63¢ price potentially unreliable for actual trading. The absurdly high implied yield of 6631.6% on the Yes side signals the market is severely mispriced or lacks sufficient liquidity to establish fair value, while the 65¢ spread represents a massive 3.2% gap that no rational trader would cross. With 56 days to expiry and a Cliff Risk Index of 10, this appears to be a dead market that should be approached with extreme caution.
Resolution rules
If Justin Rose finishes in the top 5 (including ties) in the 2026 PGA Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXPGATOP5-PGC26-JROS yes 100