What is the current probability for "PGA Championship: Will Matt Fitzpatrick finish top 20?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 63¢ (63% implied probability) on Kalshi. It closes on June 14, 2026. 51 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "PGA Championship: Will Matt Fitzpatrick finish top 20?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 1279.5% and 404.9% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "PGA Championship: Will Matt Fitzpatrick finish top 20?"?

This market trades on Kalshi, a US-regulated prediction market exchange. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

PGA Championship: Will Matt Fitzpatrick finish top 20?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 63% probability that PGA Championship: Will Matt Fitzpatrick finish top 20?. This contract trades at 63¢ on Kalshi, closing June 14, 2026. This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero volume and open interest, making the 69¢ spread and astronomical 1526.7% implied yield on the Yes side essentially meaningless—the pricing reflects no real trading activity rather than genuine market consensus.

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63¢

Bid/Ask 36/94¢·Spread 58¢·Vol $0·OI $51.65·Closes Jun 14, 2026·51d remaining

KXPGATOP20-PGC26-MFIT

Analysis

5d ago

This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero volume and open interest, making the 69¢ spread and astronomical 1526.7% implied yield on the Yes side essentially meaningless—the pricing reflects no real trading activity rather than genuine market consensus. The 0¢ current price suggests either technical listing issues or that traders have priced Fitzpatrick's top-20 finish probability near zero, though a professional golfer's odds should rarely reach such extremes. With 56 days until the June 2026 PGA Championship and a Cliff Risk Index of only 2, this market lacks sufficient liquidity to be actionable for serious prediction market participants.

Resolution rules

If Matt Fitzpatrick finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 PGA Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 1279.5%

IY (No) 404.9%

Adj IY 640%

CRI 2

Overround 5.8%

▶ Full indicator table (5)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	1279.5%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	404.9%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	640%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	2	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
Overround	5.8%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.5

Spread

58¢

Computed

4/24/2026, 10:58:36 AM

Indicators computed 4/24/2026, 10:53:43 AM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXPGATOP20-PGC26-MFIT yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →