What is the current probability for "PGA Championship: Will Matt Fitzpatrick finish top 5?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 14¢ (14% implied probability) on Kalshi. It closes on June 14, 2026. 51 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "PGA Championship: Will Matt Fitzpatrick finish top 5?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 4421.2% and 117.2% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "PGA Championship: Will Matt Fitzpatrick finish top 5?"?

This market trades on Kalshi, a US-regulated prediction market exchange. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

PGA Championship: Will Matt Fitzpatrick finish top 5?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 14% probability that PGA Championship: Will Matt Fitzpatrick finish top 5?. This contract trades at 14¢ on Kalshi, closing June 14, 2026. This market exhibits extreme illiquidity and volatility indicators that suggest mispricing rather than genuine probability assessment.

██████░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░

14¢

Bid/Ask 14/82¢·Spread 68¢·Vol $0·OI $348.88·Closes Jun 14, 2026·51d remaining

KXPGATOP5-PGC26-MFIT

7-day price149 snapshots · 6 regime

60¢14¢ current

Apr 179¢Apr 22

Analysis

4d ago

This market exhibits extreme illiquidity and volatility indicators that suggest mispricing rather than genuine probability assessment. The Yes contract has collapsed 65% over seven days (from 26¢ to 9¢) while maintaining a massive 38¢ spread and only $16 in 24-hour volume, indicating minimal real trading activity and potential stale pricing. The 4830% implied yield on the Yes side is a red flag for a thin market where a single small bet can dramatically move prices, and with 55 days until expiry and a major golf tournament event risk ahead, the Cliff Risk Index of 7 suggests significant tail risk that may not be reflected in the 11% probability.

Resolution rules

If Matt Fitzpatrick finishes in the top 5 (including ties) in the 2026 PGA Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 4421.2%

IY (No) 117.2%

Adj IY 2211%

CRI 6

Overround 2.7%

▶ Full indicator table (5)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	4421.2%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	117.2%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	2211%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	6	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
Overround	2.7%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.5

Spread

68¢

Computed

4/24/2026, 10:58:38 AM

Indicators computed 4/24/2026, 10:53:43 AM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXPGATOP5-PGC26-MFIT yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →