Will Bristol Bears win?
This contract is priced at 50¢ on Polymarket. Current book: 42¢ bid, 57¢ ask, 15¢ spread.
Implied probability
Event outcomes
3
Family volume
$58
Best sibling
Draw 5¢
Ticker
0xfa1995e8…e54a
Market snapshot
Bristol Bears in market context.
This page tracks the Polymarket contract for Will Bristol Bears win?. The displayed quote is 50¢ from the latest venue quote. The cached market record reports 24h volume of $13. In the Premiership Rugby: Bristol Bears vs Saracens family, this outcome ranks #1 of 3 by current quote across 3 sibling outcomes. The indicator bundle was refreshed May 9, 2026, 8:08 AM UTC.
Outcome
Bristol Bears
Family rank
#1 of 3
Venue
Polymarket
Current quote
50¢
Quote source
Latest venue quote
Timing
Listed until May 16, 2026
24h volume
$13
Family context
3 outcomes · Premiership Rugby: Bristol Bears vs Saracens
Quote range
5¢-50¢
Family leader
Bristol Bears 50¢
Last updated
May 9, 2026, 8:08 AM UTC · 11m ago
Venue identifier: 0xfa1995e8c81c968fe8e2ceb53579e6e5e98a37f7e318b902f64f23cfbed0e54a. Family volume: $58.
Price history
50¢ current
−2¢Orderbook snapshot
42 / 57¢
Contract terms
Resolution, venue, and identifiers.
Resolution rules
In the upcoming game, scheduled for May 9 2026 If Bristol Bears wins, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve to "No". This market refers only to the outcome when the ball becomes dead after 80 minutes of regular play.
Venue
Polymarket
Closes
May 16, 2026
Identifier
0xfa1995e8…e54a
Event family
Premiership Rugby: Bristol Bears vs Saracens.
This view keeps the individual contract next to its sibling outcomes. For long-tail search traffic, this is the useful context: where the current price sits inside the event, how much volume exists around the family, and which outcomes have actual depth.
Total volume
$58
Outcomes
3
Highest price
Bristol Bears 50¢
Current share
46%
Bristol Bears
polymarket · 0xfa1995e8c81c968fe8e2ceb53579e6e5e98a37f7e318b902f64f23cfbed0e54a
Draw
polymarket · 0x33eefe19dec982a63b1a7ad770894951e73d326034e9d5e5b1525cc1a04d1659
Saracens
polymarket · 0xc246fd300bafe81c852e6d802ff393418b9e7b3819f49f6928da5e0f7577259e
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
Full indicator table
Odds pages
Related prediction questions
Related readings
Matched from SimpleFunctions blog, opinions, technical guides, concepts, and learn pages.
Kalshi vs Polymarket: Which Prediction Market Should You Trade?
In-depth comparison of Kalshi and Polymarket for prediction market traders. Regulatory structure, liquidity, fees, API tooling, and cross-venue trading with SimpleFunctions.
Kalshi vs Polymarket: Mechanics, Fees, Regulation, Liquidity (2026)
Side-by-side comparison of Kalshi and Polymarket in 2026. Fee math, calibration data, withdrawal speed, and a decision tree for picking the right venue.
Liquidity Migration Across Resolution: Where the Money Goes When a Market Closes
When a flagship prediction market closes, the capital that was in it migrates to next-period siblings, adjacent categories, or off the venue entirely. Three migration patterns and the receiving-market opportunity.
Reading Prediction Market Orderbooks: Liquidity, Spread, and When to Enter
How to read prediction market orderbooks on Kalshi. Covers bid-ask spread analysis, liquidity scoring, executable edge calculation, and when thin markets are opportunities vs traps.
Cross-Venue Convergence Dynamics: Why Kalshi and Polymarket Converge — and When They Don't
Why the same outcome on Kalshi and Polymarket usually trades within 2-5 cents — and the three specific things that cause the gap to widen. Diagnostic guide and worked convergence trade.
Resolution Risk Premium: Pricing the Rule, Not the Outcome
When the resolution rule is fuzzy, the price is the market's estimate of how the rule will be interpreted, not the outcome's probability. Three case studies and the discount math.
SimpleFunctions context
Index, screen, query, and monitor.
Prediction Market Index
Market-wide volatility, geo risk, breadth, and activity around this contract.
Market Screener
Filter adjacent contracts by volume, expiry, IY, CRI, venue, and theme.
Event Probability API
Read 50% as a structured event probability object for agents and apps.
Realtime Data API
Prices, orderbooks, movement, heat, and liquidity indicators across venues.
World State API
Compact market-aware context packets for agent sessions and scheduled refresh.
Hedging Workflows
Map a thesis or exposure to candidate event markets and monitoring paths.