Premiership Rugby
Leader sits at 58% across 12 bound outcomes, runner-up at 49%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Leicester Tigers vs Northampton Saints: Leicester Tigers
Outcomes
12
winner-take-all
Runner-up
49¢
Bristol Bears vs Saracens: S
Spread
9pp
contested
24h volume
$72
thin orderbook
Closes
May 17, 2026
8 days
Venue
Polymarket
12 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Premiership Rugby
Premiership Rugby: Bristol Bears vs Saracens: Draw
0x33eefe…1659
Premiership Rugby: Bristol Bears vs Saracens: Bristol Bears
0xfa1995…e54a
Premiership Rugby: Leicester Tigers vs Northampton Saints: Leicester Tigers
0xeba389…fdc9
Premiership Rugby: Bristol Bears vs Saracens: Saracens
0xc246fd…259e
Premiership Rugby: Leicester Tigers vs Northampton Saints: Draw
0x239488…419a
Premiership Rugby: Leicester Tigers vs Northampton Saints: Northampton Saints
0x236b19…577a
Premiership Rugby: Exeter Chiefs vs Bath: Exeter Chiefs
0xc48696…5ee7
Premiership Rugby: Newcastle Red Bulls vs Harlequins: Harlequins
0x6f3d20…d09e
Premiership Rugby: Newcastle Red Bulls vs Harlequins: Draw
0xf36299…e49f
Premiership Rugby: Newcastle Red Bulls vs Harlequins: Newcastle Red Bulls
0x0201f2…4d72
Premiership Rugby: Exeter Chiefs vs Bath: Bath
0x027b9c…c811
Premiership Rugby: Exeter Chiefs vs Bath: Draw
0x705615…ddb0
What moved the line
- May 8Exeter Chiefs vs Bath: Draw↓25pp31→6¢ · Polymarket
- May 8Leicester Tigers vs Northampton Saints: Leicester Tigers↓10pp55→45¢ · Polymarket
- May 7Exeter Chiefs vs Bath: Draw↓10pp41→31¢ · Polymarket
- May 7Newcastle Red Bulls vs Harlequins: Harlequins↓7pp62→55¢ · Polymarket
- May 7Exeter Chiefs vs Bath: Exeter Chiefs↓6pp40→34¢ · Polymarket
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
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In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 3 min ago.