SimpleFunctions

Cincinnati Bengals to win Pro Football: AFC North

Cincinnati Bengals is priced at 38¢ on Polymarket. Current book: 32¢ bid, 48¢ ask, 16¢ spread. This outcome ranks #1 of 4 inside Pro Football: AFC North Champion.

Price history

38¢ current

+8¢
25¢50¢
May 8, 2026Jun 8, 2026

Contract brief

This market will resolve according to the team that is declared as the AFC North division champion for the 2026 NFL regular season. If multiple teams tie atop the division, this market will resolve according to the official tiebreak procedure of the NFL. If the 2026 NFL regular season is cancelled, postponed after January 17, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no winner declared for this division within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the NFL; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Outcome

Cincinnati Bengals

Rank

#1 of 4

Leader

Cincinnati Bengals 44¢

Range

6¢-44¢

Family volume

$11K

Identifier

0x779a70f8...4e0d

Jun 8, 2026, 3:38 AM UTC · 16m ago

Implied probability

38¢
Latest venue quote
Jun 8, 2026, 3:38 AM UTC · 16m ago

Bid

32¢

Ask

48¢

Spread

16¢

Reported volume

$1K

Family rank

#1 of 4

4 outcomes · Pro Football: AFC North Champion

Closes

Jan 4, 2027

Family volume

$11K

Orderbook snapshot

32 / 48¢

Polymarket
16¢ spread
BidSize
32¢80
31¢16
29¢25
28¢10
26¢127
24¢700
8¢69
7¢250
AskSize
48¢30
49¢100
50¢100
51¢100
52¢30
53¢23
54¢15
74¢235

Contract terms

What resolves this market.

YES condition

This market will resolve according to the team that is declared as the AFC North division champion for the 2026 NFL regular season. If multiple teams tie atop the division, this market will resolve according to the official tiebreak procedure of the NFL. If the 2026 NFL regular season is cancelled, postponed after January 17, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no winner declared for this division within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the NFL; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Venue

Polymarket

Closes

Jan 4, 2027

Identifier

0x779a70f8…4e0d

SF Signal
SF Index
144.77
Regime
neutral

Indicators

Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.

IY (Yes)

230.6%

IY (No)

131.2%

Adj IY

145%

CRI

1

RV

1679%

VR

11.43

Regime

neutral

Score

0.5

Full indicator table

230.6%
131.2%
Adj IY
145%
1
RV
1679%
VR
11.43
IAR
3.5/h
Overround
0.2%
LAS
0.37

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How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.