Pro Football: AFC North Champion
Leader sits at 45% across 4 bound outcomes, runner-up at 35%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
AFC North Champion: Baltimore Ravens
Outcomes
4
winner-take-all
Runner-up
35¢
AFC North Champion: Cincinna
Spread
10pp
contested
24h volume
$0
thin orderbook
Closes
Jan 4, 2027
215 days
Venue
Polymarket
4 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Pro Football: AFC North Champion
Pro Football: AFC North Champion: Baltimore Ravens
0x74472d…4e44
Pro Football: AFC North Champion: Pittsburgh Steelers
0xd343ac…719b
Pro Football: AFC North Champion: Cleveland Browns
0x823b60…3e16
Pro Football: AFC North Champion: Cincinnati Bengals
0x779a70…4e0d
Analysis
This 54% probability indicates that the leading AFC North team contract is priced to suggest better-than-even odds of winning the division title. The assessment reflects current regular-season performance, roster health, and remaining schedule strength—teams with stronger records and lower injury counts typically trade higher. Movement in this probability would follow week-to-week win-loss results, notable injuries to star players, or changes in strength of schedule. The main resolution catalyst is the NFL regular season's conclusion in early January 2027, which determines the division winner; however, meaningful probability shifts will occur throughout the season as standings clarify and playoff positioning becomes more certain. Interim movements also depend on published injury reports and trade deadline activity in late October.
- ›Current win-loss record and head-to-head division standings as of May 2026, which establish baseline competitive positioning among the four AFC North teams
- ›Injury status of key offensive or defensive players on the leading contract team, since absences of star performers typically reduce division-winning probabilities
- ›Remaining strength of schedule for each AFC North team, measured by opponent win rates from the prior season, affecting expected win totals
- ›Trading volume and sustained price levels across the four competing division contracts, indicating whether the 54% leader is holding or eroding support
- ›Performance of division rivals in early-season games (September-October 2026), which can rapidly shift probabilities as actual outcomes replace preseason projections
What moved the line
- May 28AFC North Champion: Pittsburgh Steelers↓16pp35→19¢ · Polymarket
- May 27AFC North Champion: Pittsburgh Steelers↑14pp21→35¢ · Polymarket
- May 26AFC North Champion: Pittsburgh Steelers↑10pp11→21¢ · Polymarket
- May 27AFC North Champion: Baltimore Ravens↑9pp42→51¢ · Polymarket
- May 27AFC North Champion: Cincinnati Bengals↑7pp33→40¢ · Polymarket
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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