SimpleFunctions

Total Goals for PSG vs Arsenal

4.5 goals scored is priced at 13¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 12¢ bid, 13¢ ask, 1¢ spread. This outcome ranks #4 of 4 inside PSG vs Arsenal: Total Goals: Over.

Price history

13¢ current

+11¢
0¢10¢20¢
May 7, 2026May 26, 2026

Contract brief

If Arsenal and PSG collectively score more than 4.5 total goals in the PSG vs Arsenal professional Champions League soccer game originally scheduled for May 30, 2026 after 90 minutes plus stoppage time (does not include extra time or penalties), then the market resolves to Yes.

Outcome

4.5 goals scored

Rank

#4 of 4

Leader

1.5 goals scored 73¢

Range

12¢-73¢

Family volume

$9K

Identifier

KXUCLTOTAL-26MAY30PSGARS-4

May 26, 2026, 4:08 PM UTC · 6m ago

Implied probability

13¢
Latest venue quote
May 26, 2026, 4:08 PM UTC · 6m ago

Bid

12¢

Ask

13¢

Spread

24h volume

$1K

Family rank

#4 of 4

4 outcomes · PSG vs Arsenal: Total Goals: Over

Closes

Jun 13, 2026

Family volume

$9K

Orderbook snapshot

12 / 13¢

Kalshi
1¢ spread
BidSize
12¢365
11¢3.6K
10¢4.2K
9¢3.2K
8¢3.1K
AskSize
13¢1.5K
14¢3.5K
15¢3.3K
16¢3.1K
17¢2.0K

Contract terms

What resolves this market.

YES condition

If Arsenal and PSG collectively score more than 4.5 total goals in the PSG vs Arsenal professional Champions League soccer game originally scheduled for May 30, 2026 after 90 minutes plus stoppage time (does not include extra time or penalties), then the market resolves to Yes.

Venue

Kalshi

Closes

Jun 13, 2026

Identifier

KXUCLTOTAL-26MAY30PSGARS-4

SF Signal
SF Index
14875.33
Regime
neutral

Event family

PSG vs Arsenal: Total Goals: Over.

The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.

Total volume

$9K

Outcomes

4

Highest price

1.5 goals scored 73¢

Current share

15%

Indicators

Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.

IY (Yes)

14875.3%

IY (No)

276.6%

Adj IY

14875%

CRI

7

RV

767%

VR

0.57

Regime

neutral

Score

0.5

Full indicator table

14875.3%
276.6%
Adj IY
14875%
7
RV
767%
VR
0.57
IAR
0.6/h
Overround
0.6%

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How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.