SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T?

This market reflects genuine uncertainty around a SpaceX IPO valuation exceeding $2 trillion, with the 50¢ price indicating a coin-flip probability and symmetric 58.6% implied yields on both sides. The $14.9M open interest and tight 1¢ spread suggest reasonable liquidity for a long-dated binary event, though the modest $415 daily volume indicates this isn't a heavily traded contract. With 623 days to expiry, the market has substantial time for new information on SpaceX's financials and IPO timing to move prices, though the neutral regime score and minimal 7-day price drift (51¢ to 50¢) suggest current sentiment remains stable around fair value.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the official closing price for SpaceX’s market capitalization on its first trading day is above the value specified in the title. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No”. If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”. Market capitalization is defined as the total number of outstanding shares multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day. Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used. In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on SpaceX’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading.

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Regime

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