SpaceX IPO closing market cap above ___ ?
Leader sits at 96% across 11 bound outcomes, runner-up at 91%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
>$1.4T
Outcomes
11
winner-take-all
Runner-up
91¢
>$1.6T
Spread
5pp
contested
24h volume
$281K
liquid
Closes
Dec 31, 2027
571 days
Venue
Polymarket
11 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above ___
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above ___ ?: >$1.8T
0xd4d841…aec2
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above ___ ?: >$2.6T
0x9319e7…7531
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above ___ ?: >$1.6T
0xe5ffcf…7f3e
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above ___ ?: >$3T
0x3f4b9f…566f
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above ___ ?: >$2.8T
0x659dde…7fac
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above ___ ?: >$2.4T
0xf47178…f897
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above ___ ?: >$2.2T
0x93f2e1…0805
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above ___ ?: >$2T
0x661903…9c59
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above ___ ?: >$3.2T
0x132ff6…54e1
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above ___ ?: >$1.4T
0x611337…6388
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above ___ ?: >$3.4T
0xde71d2…22f4
Analysis
This market indicates an 93% probability that SpaceX's IPO closing market capitalization will exceed $1.6 trillion. The high probability reflects investor confidence in SpaceX's valuation relative to its business fundamentals, though it depends heavily on market conditions at the time of listing and broader sentiment toward aerospace and technology stocks. The primary driver of current probability levels is the company's strong operational performance in rocket launches and satellite deployment, offset by uncertainty around IPO timing and macroeconomic factors. Resolution depends on SpaceX actually going public and the closing-day market price—currently expected sometime in 2026 or early 2027, though Elon Musk has historically delayed timelines. Market volatility, competitive developments in commercial spaceflight, and changes to federal space policy could shift valuations significantly before any IPO occurs.
- ›SpaceX's launch cadence and Starship development progress directly influence investor valuation expectations; delays or technical setbacks would pressure market cap assumptions downward
- ›The timing of IPO filing and actual listing date remains unannounced; extended delays increase uncertainty about macro conditions and competitive landscape at pricing
- ›Comparable valuations: private market rounds valued SpaceX at ~$180B (2023); a $1.6T IPO represents ~9x that valuation, requiring substantial growth or multiple expansion
- ›Interest rates and tech sector sentiment at IPO date will materially impact valuation multiples; higher rates or market risk-off conditions compress aerospace valuations
- ›Regulatory approvals (FCC, FAA licensing, national security reviews) must clear before listing; changes to space policy or foreign investment rules could alter IPO feasibility or timing
What moved the line
- Jun 5>$2.2T↓12pp58→46¢ · Polymarket
- Jun 5>$2.6T↓10pp28→18¢ · Polymarket
- Jun 1>$2.4T↑10pp39→49¢ · Polymarket
- Jun 3>$2.4T↓9pp51→42¢ · Polymarket
- Jun 5>$1.8T↓8pp89→81¢ · Polymarket
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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