Will the chopsticks catch SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 Superheavy booster?
This contract is priced at 3¢ on Polymarket. Current book: 3¢ bid, 3¢ ask, 0¢ spread.
Implied probability
Event outcomes
7
Family volume
$49K
Best sibling
May 31 88¢
Ticker
0x70256bb3…9ade
Market snapshot
Chopsticks catch Super Heavy booster? in market context.
This page tracks the Polymarket contract for Will the chopsticks catch SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 Superheavy booster?. The displayed quote is 3¢ from the latest venue quote. The cached market record reports 24h volume of $581. In the SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 family, this outcome ranks #7 of 7 by current quote across 7 sibling outcomes. The indicator bundle was refreshed May 9, 2026, 5:08 AM UTC.
Outcome
Chopsticks catch Super Heavy booster?
Family rank
#7 of 7
Venue
Polymarket
Current quote
3¢
Quote source
Latest venue quote
Timing
Listed until Dec 31, 2026
24h volume
$581
Family context
7 outcomes · SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12
Quote range
3¢-92¢
Family leader
June 30 92¢
Last updated
May 9, 2026, 5:08 AM UTC · 7m ago
Venue identifier: 0x70256bb37df15accfd8a576e9838e277022790b82ba576a3b8762ff4b9839ade. Family volume: $49K.
Price history
3¢ current
−39¢Orderbook snapshot
3 / 3¢
Contract terms
Resolution, venue, and identifiers.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the booster for the twelfth Starship-SuperHeavy test is successfully caught by the chopsticks on the Orbital Launch Tower during its landing attempt. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A successful catch is defined as the chopsticks capturing and supporting the booster without it falling to the ground or causing catastrophic damage during the landing process. This market pertains to the twelfth Starship launch. If the rocket lifts off the pad, it will be considered the twelfth Starship launch, and this market will resolve based on it. If the rocket does not lift off the pad, it will not be considered the twelfth launch, and this market will stay open until the twelfth launch has occurred. If the twelfth launch has not occurred by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary.
Venue
Polymarket
Closes
Dec 31, 2026
Identifier
0x70256bb3…9ade
Event family
SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12.
This view keeps the individual contract next to its sibling outcomes. For long-tail search traffic, this is the useful context: where the current price sits inside the event, how much volume exists around the family, and which outcomes have actual depth.
Total volume
$49K
Outcomes
7
Highest price
June 30 92¢
Current share
27%
Chopsticks catch Super Heavy booster?
polymarket · 0x70256bb37df15accfd8a576e9838e277022790b82ba576a3b8762ff4b9839ade
May 31
polymarket · 0xf582893f97c06a7929c7c14657b4265a0ff06bcee8cdaadc43a889e720249cdc
Successful splash down?
polymarket · 0xebe4cbe5f3890e3ea9a489f5f8a6440aa556fdbc952c0f2edf7bbadbc8877fcc
May 15
polymarket · 0x322e86092d4f835a6259c68e15f09bcc1fc5d721917fff4e9804218cb6a83629
May 22
polymarket · 0xc48adad41230bb3e1cc1e6ac50560225cea311cb75c33a900f0133d15a9ba4ba
Super Heavy booster explodes?
polymarket · 0x400b0455f9dab6116139d3f849a4e117894314ddbaefa17fbdf586b4b7177ccb
June 30
polymarket · 0xf32b4a217c6af98fcb7febd932f9a272af0ba8649f3731cbbba5f8ed700b081e
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
taker
Score
0.636
Observability
direct
Event type
scientific
Full indicator table
Odds pages
Related prediction questions
Related readings
Matched from SimpleFunctions blog, opinions, technical guides, concepts, and learn pages.
Resolution Risk Premium: Pricing the Rule, Not the Outcome
When the resolution rule is fuzzy, the price is the market's estimate of how the rule will be interpreted, not the outcome's probability. Three case studies and the discount math.
Kalshi vs Polymarket: Which Prediction Market Should You Trade?
In-depth comparison of Kalshi and Polymarket for prediction market traders. Regulatory structure, liquidity, fees, API tooling, and cross-venue trading with SimpleFunctions.
Kalshi vs Polymarket: Mechanics, Fees, Regulation, Liquidity (2026)
Side-by-side comparison of Kalshi and Polymarket in 2026. Fee math, calibration data, withdrawal speed, and a decision tree for picking the right venue.
Information Finance Has Arrived: A Material Map of Prediction Markets in Q2 2026
Combined Kalshi + Polymarket volume hit $66B in just four months of 2026 — already greater than the entire 2025 industry total. Bernstein projects $1T by 2030. Two venues hold 95% of US share. The distribution layer fragmented across nine retail surfaces. AI agents are 30% of Polymarket wallet activ
Implied Yield vs Raw Probability: Why Bond-Adjacent Prediction Markets Need a Different Lens
Why fixed-income-adjacent prediction-market contracts need to be priced in implied yield, not raw probability, with two real Kalshi Fed-decision contracts as a case study.
Liquidity Migration Across Resolution: Where the Money Goes When a Market Closes
When a flagship prediction market closes, the capital that was in it migrates to next-period siblings, adjacent categories, or off the venue entirely. Three migration patterns and the receiving-market opportunity.
SimpleFunctions context
Index, screen, query, and monitor.
Prediction Market Index
Market-wide volatility, geo risk, breadth, and activity around this contract.
Market Screener
Filter adjacent contracts by volume, expiry, IY, CRI, venue, and theme.
Event Probability API
Read 3% as a structured event probability object for agents and apps.
Realtime Data API
Prices, orderbooks, movement, heat, and liquidity indicators across venues.
World State API
Compact market-aware context packets for agent sessions and scheduled refresh.
Hedging Workflows
Map a thesis or exposure to candidate event markets and monitoring paths.