SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12

30-day trend

Analysis

The 82% probability indicates market participants assess a high likelihood that SpaceX will attempt Flight Test 12 of Starship by May 31, 2026. Current market pricing reflects confidence in near-term launch readiness, though uncertainty remains about exact timing and mission success. The May 31 contract significantly outprices later date alternatives (May 22 at 55%, June 30 at 52%), suggesting traders expect launch attempts within the next four weeks rather than delays extending into June. Market participants are also pricing a 28% chance the mission includes a successful Chopsticks catch of the Super Heavy booster, a more complex objective than flight itself. The main factor supporting the high probability is SpaceX's demonstrated cadence of Starship test flights; factors that could lower it include regulatory delays, technical issues discovered during pre-flight checks, or unfavorable launch window conditions. Resolution depends on whether SpaceX announces and executes a Flight Test 12 launch attempt before May 31.

• ›SpaceX completed Flight Test 11 in April 2024; the cadence and timeline from that mission to a May 2026 attempt would determine if 82% is consistent with historical launch intervals
• ›FAA licensing and range availability constraints have delayed previous Starship tests; any new regulatory holds or range conflicts before May 31 would directly contradict the high probability
• ›May 31 contract (82¢) commands a 27-percentage-point premium over May 22 (55¢), indicating traders expect either a delay past mid-May or confidence the window extends to late May
• ›Chopsticks booster catch pricing at only 28¢ while flight attempt prices at 82¢ suggests marginal market confidence in that specific objective, even if the launch occurs
• ›Weather, propellant loading issues, or discovered hardware anomalies during final countdown integration typically resolve within days; no public schedule has been announced as of May 6, 2026

What moved the line

• May 7Super Heavy booster explodes↑19pp62→81¢ · Polymarket
• May 7June 30↑19pp73→92¢ · Polymarket
• May 7May 22↑10pp55→65¢ · Polymarket
• May 6May 31↓8pp86→78¢ · Polymarket
• May 7Successful splash down↑7pp51→58¢ · Polymarket

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How we compute these odds