Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 Superheavy explode?
This contract is priced at 83¢ on Polymarket. Current book: 82¢ bid, 83¢ ask, 1¢ spread.
Implied probability
Event outcomes
7
Family volume
$49K
Best sibling
Chopsticks catch Super Heavy booster? 3¢
Ticker
0x400b0455…7ccb
Market snapshot
Super Heavy booster explodes? in market context.
This page tracks the Polymarket contract for Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 Superheavy explode?. The displayed quote is 83¢ from the latest venue quote. The cached market record reports 24h volume of $725. In the SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 family, this outcome ranks #3 of 7 by current quote across 7 sibling outcomes. The indicator bundle was refreshed May 9, 2026, 8:53 AM UTC.
Outcome
Super Heavy booster explodes?
Family rank
#3 of 7
Venue
Polymarket
Current quote
83¢
Quote source
Latest venue quote
Timing
Listed until Dec 31, 2026
24h volume
$725
Family context
7 outcomes · SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12
Quote range
3¢-92¢
Family leader
June 30 92¢
Last updated
May 9, 2026, 8:53 AM UTC · 11m ago
Venue identifier: 0x400b0455f9dab6116139d3f849a4e117894314ddbaefa17fbdf586b4b7177ccb. Family volume: $49K.
Price history
83¢ current
+32¢Orderbook snapshot
82 / 83¢
Contract terms
Resolution, venue, and identifiers.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the booster for the twelfth Starship-SuperHeavy test explodes at any point during the test from the start of fueling operations to 60 minutes after it makes contact with Earth upon landing. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An explosion is defined as a violent and catastrophic event resulting in the destruction of all or part of the vehicle, regardless of intent or context (e.g., a planned termination event would also count). If the twelfth launch has not occurred by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". Note: The sixth Starship-SuperHeavy test flight which exploded after executing controlled splashdown in the Gulf of Mexico would qualify for a "Yes" resolution. The resolution source for this market will be official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary.
Venue
Polymarket
Closes
Dec 31, 2026
Identifier
0x400b0455…7ccb
Event family
SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12.
This view keeps the individual contract next to its sibling outcomes. For long-tail search traffic, this is the useful context: where the current price sits inside the event, how much volume exists around the family, and which outcomes have actual depth.
Total volume
$49K
Outcomes
7
Highest price
June 30 92¢
Current share
8%
Super Heavy booster explodes?
polymarket · 0x400b0455f9dab6116139d3f849a4e117894314ddbaefa17fbdf586b4b7177ccb
Chopsticks catch Super Heavy booster?
polymarket · 0x70256bb37df15accfd8a576e9838e277022790b82ba576a3b8762ff4b9839ade
May 31
polymarket · 0xf582893f97c06a7929c7c14657b4265a0ff06bcee8cdaadc43a889e720249cdc
Successful splash down?
polymarket · 0xebe4cbe5f3890e3ea9a489f5f8a6440aa556fdbc952c0f2edf7bbadbc8877fcc
May 15
polymarket · 0x322e86092d4f835a6259c68e15f09bcc1fc5d721917fff4e9804218cb6a83629
May 22
polymarket · 0xc48adad41230bb3e1cc1e6ac50560225cea311cb75c33a900f0133d15a9ba4ba
June 30
polymarket · 0xf32b4a217c6af98fcb7febd932f9a272af0ba8649f3731cbbba5f8ed700b081e
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
taker
Score
0.636
Observability
direct
Event type
scientific
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