Will the Starship for SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 achieve a successful splashdown?
This contract is priced at 58¢ on Polymarket. Current book: 56¢ bid, 60¢ ask, 4¢ spread.
Implied probability
Event outcomes
7
Family volume
$49K
Best sibling
Chopsticks catch Super Heavy booster? 3¢
Ticker
0xebe4cbe5…7fcc
Market snapshot
Successful splash down? in market context.
This page tracks the Polymarket contract for Will the Starship for SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 achieve a successful splashdown?. The displayed quote is 58¢ from the latest venue quote. The cached market record reports 24h volume of $5K. In the SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 family, this outcome ranks #5 of 7 by current quote across 7 sibling outcomes. The indicator bundle was refreshed May 9, 2026, 4:08 AM UTC.
Outcome
Successful splash down?
Family rank
#5 of 7
Venue
Polymarket
Current quote
58¢
Quote source
Latest venue quote
Timing
Listed until Dec 31, 2026
24h volume
$5K
Family context
7 outcomes · SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12
Quote range
3¢-92¢
Family leader
June 30 92¢
Last updated
May 9, 2026, 4:08 AM UTC · 14m ago
Venue identifier: 0xebe4cbe5f3890e3ea9a489f5f8a6440aa556fdbc952c0f2edf7bbadbc8877fcc. Family volume: $49K.
Price history
58¢ current
+7¢Orderbook snapshot
56 / 60¢
Contract terms
Resolution, venue, and identifiers.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Starship upper stage for the twelfth Starship-SuperHeavy test flight achieves a controlled splashdown in the ocean. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This market pertains to the twelfth Starship launch. If the rocket lifts off the pad, it will be considered the twelfth Starship launch, and this market will resolve based on it. If the rocket does not lift off the pad, it will not be considered the twelfth launch, and this market will stay open until the twelfth launch has occurred. If the twelfth launch has not occurred by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". A splashdown will be considered controlled if the Starship upper stage successfully re-enters Earth's atmosphere, remains intact during descent, and enters the water without breaking apart or exploding upon impact. The resolution source for this market will be official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary.
Venue
Polymarket
Closes
Dec 31, 2026
Identifier
0xebe4cbe5…7fcc
Event family
SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12.
This view keeps the individual contract next to its sibling outcomes. For long-tail search traffic, this is the useful context: where the current price sits inside the event, how much volume exists around the family, and which outcomes have actual depth.
Total volume
$49K
Outcomes
7
Highest price
June 30 92¢
Current share
19%
Successful splash down?
polymarket · 0xebe4cbe5f3890e3ea9a489f5f8a6440aa556fdbc952c0f2edf7bbadbc8877fcc
Chopsticks catch Super Heavy booster?
polymarket · 0x70256bb37df15accfd8a576e9838e277022790b82ba576a3b8762ff4b9839ade
May 31
polymarket · 0xf582893f97c06a7929c7c14657b4265a0ff06bcee8cdaadc43a889e720249cdc
May 15
polymarket · 0x322e86092d4f835a6259c68e15f09bcc1fc5d721917fff4e9804218cb6a83629
May 22
polymarket · 0xc48adad41230bb3e1cc1e6ac50560225cea311cb75c33a900f0133d15a9ba4ba
Super Heavy booster explodes?
polymarket · 0x400b0455f9dab6116139d3f849a4e117894314ddbaefa17fbdf586b4b7177ccb
June 30
polymarket · 0xf32b4a217c6af98fcb7febd932f9a272af0ba8649f3731cbbba5f8ed700b081e
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
taker
Score
0.636
Observability
direct
Event type
scientific
Full indicator table
Odds pages
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