Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 Superheavy explode?
This contract is priced at 83¢ on Polymarket. Current book: 82¢ bid, 83¢ ask, 1¢ spread.
Implied probability
Event outcomes
7
Family volume
$49K
Best sibling
Chopsticks catch Super Heavy booster? 3¢
Ticker
0x400b0455…7ccb
Market snapshot
Super Heavy booster explodes? in market context.
This page tracks the Polymarket contract for Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 Superheavy explode?. The displayed quote is 83¢ from the latest venue quote. The cached market record reports 24h volume of $725. In the SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 family, this outcome ranks #3 of 7 by current quote across 7 sibling outcomes. The indicator bundle was refreshed May 9, 2026, 8:23 AM UTC.
Outcome
Super Heavy booster explodes?
Family rank
#3 of 7
Venue
Polymarket
Current quote
83¢
Quote source
Latest venue quote
Timing
Listed until Dec 31, 2026
24h volume
$725
Family context
7 outcomes · SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12
Quote range
3¢-92¢
Family leader
June 30 92¢
Last updated
May 9, 2026, 8:23 AM UTC · 2m ago
Venue identifier: 0x400b0455f9dab6116139d3f849a4e117894314ddbaefa17fbdf586b4b7177ccb. Family volume: $49K.
Price history
83¢ current
+32¢Orderbook snapshot
82 / 83¢
Contract terms
Resolution, venue, and identifiers.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the booster for the twelfth Starship-SuperHeavy test explodes at any point during the test from the start of fueling operations to 60 minutes after it makes contact with Earth upon landing. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An explosion is defined as a violent and catastrophic event resulting in the destruction of all or part of the vehicle, regardless of intent or context (e.g., a planned termination event would also count). If the twelfth launch has not occurred by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". Note: The sixth Starship-SuperHeavy test flight which exploded after executing controlled splashdown in the Gulf of Mexico would qualify for a "Yes" resolution. The resolution source for this market will be official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary.
Venue
Polymarket
Closes
Dec 31, 2026
Identifier
0x400b0455…7ccb
Event family
SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12.
This view keeps the individual contract next to its sibling outcomes. For long-tail search traffic, this is the useful context: where the current price sits inside the event, how much volume exists around the family, and which outcomes have actual depth.
Total volume
$49K
Outcomes
7
Highest price
June 30 92¢
Current share
8%
Super Heavy booster explodes?
polymarket · 0x400b0455f9dab6116139d3f849a4e117894314ddbaefa17fbdf586b4b7177ccb
Chopsticks catch Super Heavy booster?
polymarket · 0x70256bb37df15accfd8a576e9838e277022790b82ba576a3b8762ff4b9839ade
May 31
polymarket · 0xf582893f97c06a7929c7c14657b4265a0ff06bcee8cdaadc43a889e720249cdc
Successful splash down?
polymarket · 0xebe4cbe5f3890e3ea9a489f5f8a6440aa556fdbc952c0f2edf7bbadbc8877fcc
May 15
polymarket · 0x322e86092d4f835a6259c68e15f09bcc1fc5d721917fff4e9804218cb6a83629
May 22
polymarket · 0xc48adad41230bb3e1cc1e6ac50560225cea311cb75c33a900f0133d15a9ba4ba
June 30
polymarket · 0xf32b4a217c6af98fcb7febd932f9a272af0ba8649f3731cbbba5f8ed700b081e
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
taker
Score
0.636
Observability
direct
Event type
scientific
Full indicator table
Odds pages
Related prediction questions
Related readings
Matched from SimpleFunctions blog, opinions, technical guides, concepts, and learn pages.
Kalshi vs Polymarket: Which Prediction Market Should You Trade?
In-depth comparison of Kalshi and Polymarket for prediction market traders. Regulatory structure, liquidity, fees, API tooling, and cross-venue trading with SimpleFunctions.
Kalshi vs Polymarket: Mechanics, Fees, Regulation, Liquidity (2026)
Side-by-side comparison of Kalshi and Polymarket in 2026. Fee math, calibration data, withdrawal speed, and a decision tree for picking the right venue.
Yield Curve (Prediction Markets)
A prediction-market yield curve plots implied yield against τ-days across all sibling contracts in an event family. Borrowed from bond desks, enabled by cycle clustering.
Resolution Risk Premium: Pricing the Rule, Not the Outcome
When the resolution rule is fuzzy, the price is the market's estimate of how the rule will be interpreted, not the outcome's probability. Three case studies and the discount math.
Maker / Taker Regime in Prediction Markets: How to Read the Orderbook State
Three regime states (maker-dominated, taker-dominated, neutral) and how to read which one a Kalshi or Polymarket contract is in. Strategy follows regime, not thesis.
Liquidity Availability Is the Real Edge in Prediction Markets
Implied yield, cliff risk, and overround all describe what to trade. Liquidity Availability Score describes whether the orderbook can absorb the trade. Why LAS is the indicator that decides who actually books P&L.
SimpleFunctions context
Index, screen, query, and monitor.
Prediction Market Index
Market-wide volatility, geo risk, breadth, and activity around this contract.
Market Screener
Filter adjacent contracts by volume, expiry, IY, CRI, venue, and theme.
Event Probability API
Read 83% as a structured event probability object for agents and apps.
Realtime Data API
Prices, orderbooks, movement, heat, and liquidity indicators across venues.
World State API
Compact market-aware context packets for agent sessions and scheduled refresh.
Hedging Workflows
Map a thesis or exposure to candidate event markets and monitoring paths.