Trump declares election interference national emergency?
This contract is priced at 24¢ on Polymarket. Current book: 20¢ bid, 28¢ ask, 8¢ spread.
Implied probability
Event outcomes
1
Family volume
$156K
Best sibling
—
Ticker
0x50378a90…9bbc
Market snapshot
Trump declares election interference national emergency? in market context.
This page tracks the Polymarket contract for Trump declares election interference national emergency? . The displayed quote is 24¢ from the latest venue quote. The cached market record reports 24h volume of $31. It is currently represented as a standalone prediction-market contract. The indicator bundle was refreshed May 13, 2026, 4:08 PM UTC.
Outcome
Trump declares election interference national emergency?
Family rank
—
Venue
Polymarket
Current quote
24¢
Quote source
Latest venue quote
Timing
Listed until Dec 31, 2026
24h volume
$31
Family context
Standalone contract
Quote range
—
Family leader
—
Last updated
May 13, 2026, 4:08 PM UTC · 11m ago
Venue identifier: 0x50378a9069427b82e68dd334fcf40bae1e077c0658214926c3635ff64c539bbc. Family volume: $156K.
Price history
24¢ current
+5¢Orderbook snapshot
20 / 28¢
Contract terms
Resolution, venue, and identifiers.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if President Donald Trump formally declares a national emergency, pursuant to the National Emergencies Act, explicitly relating to interference in U.S. elections or election processes, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” A qualifying declaration must include formal language stating that a national emergency exists and must be issued under the National Emergencies Act (50 U.S.C. § 1621 et seq.). The declaration must explicitly reference interference in U.S. elections, election processes, election systems, voting procedures, ballots, or voting machines as the basis for the emergency. Statements, speeches, social media posts, draft orders, executive orders that do not formally declare a national emergency under the National Emergencies Act, or other actions that merely reference election interference without declaring a national emergency will not qualify. Renewals or extensions of previously existing national emergencies will not qualify unless the text is materially modified to explicitly relate to election interference. The primary resolution source will be the Federal Register and official White House publications, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Venue
Polymarket
Closes
Dec 31, 2026
Identifier
0x50378a90…9bbc
Event family
Trump declares election interference national emergency? .
This view keeps the individual contract next to its sibling outcomes. For long-tail search traffic, this is the useful context: where the current price sits inside the event, how much volume exists around the family, and which outcomes have actual depth.
Total volume
$156K
Outcomes
1
Highest price
Trump declares election interference national emergency? 24¢
Current share
100%
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.409
Observability
medium
Event type
political
Full indicator table
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.