SimpleFunctions

June 30 · Trump renames ICE to NICE by

June 30 is priced at 3¢ on Polymarket. Current book: 3¢ bid, 3¢ ask, 0¢ spread. This outcome ranks #2 of 2 inside Trump renames ICE to NICE by...?.

Price history

3¢ current

0¢5¢
May 25, 2026May 25, 2026

Contract brief

On April 27, 2026, White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt posted on X that President Donald J. Trump endorsed renaming Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) to “NICE.” You can read more about that here: https://x.com/presssec/status/2048746343275938173?s=46. This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump signs any federal legislation or performs any executive action that changes the name of Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) to “NICE” or to any name that is officially abbreviated as “NICE” by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Any executive action or legislation that renames Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) to “NICE” or to any name that is officially abbreviated as “NICE” will qualify, regardless of if/when the change goes into effect or if the action is delayed, suspended, or subsequently blocked by judicial or other actions. This market’s primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration; however, a consensus of credible information from major news outlets or government statements will also be used.

Outcome

June 30

Rank

#2 of 2

Leader

December 31 21¢

Range

3¢-21¢

Family volume

$171K

Identifier

0x1ffe41da...fa22

May 25, 2026, 7:08 AM UTC · 12m ago

Implied probability

3¢
Latest venue quote
May 25, 2026, 7:08 AM UTC · 12m ago

Bid

Ask

Spread

24h volume

$557

Family rank

#2 of 2

2 outcomes · Trump renames ICE to NICE by...?

Closes

Jun 30, 2026

Family volume

$171K

Orderbook snapshot

3 / 3¢

Polymarket
0¢ spread
BidSize
3¢253
3¢200
2¢12
2¢108
2¢7
2¢202
2¢4.0K
2¢854
AskSize
3¢51
4¢509
5¢835
5¢230
9¢507
14¢200
16¢800
17¢1.0K

Contract terms

What resolves this market.

YES condition

On April 27, 2026, White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt posted on X that President Donald J. Trump endorsed renaming Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) to “NICE.” You can read more about that here: https://x.com/presssec/status/2048746343275938173?s=46. This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump signs any federal legislation or performs any executive action that changes the name of Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) to “NICE” or to any name that is officially abbreviated as “NICE” by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Any executive action or legislation that renames Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) to “NICE” or to any name that is officially abbreviated as “NICE” will qualify, regardless of if/when the change goes into effect or if the action is delayed, suspended, or subsequently blocked by judicial or other actions. This market’s primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration; however, a consensus of credible information from major news outlets or government statements will also be used.

Venue

Polymarket

Closes

Jun 30, 2026

Identifier

0x1ffe41da…fa22

SF Signal
SF Index
16527.56
Regime
neutral

Event family

Trump renames ICE to NICE by.

The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.

Total volume

$171K

Outcomes

2

Highest price

December 31 21¢

Current share

100%

Indicators

Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.

Regime

neutral

Score

0.5

Full indicator table

33055.1%
31.6%
Adj IY
16528%
32

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How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.