Trump renames ICE to NICE by...
Leader sits at 25% across 2 bound outcomes, runner-up at 3%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
December 31
Outcomes
2
winner-take-all
Runner-up
3¢
June 30
Spread
22pp
contested
24h volume
$1
thin orderbook
Closes
Jun 30, 2026
34 days
Venue
Polymarket
2 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Trump renames ICE to NICE by
Analysis
This prediction asks whether President Trump will rename Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) to NICE by December 31, 2026. The 17% probability reflects moderate skepticism about a formal agency rebranding occurring within seven months. Market pricing suggests traders view this as unlikely but plausible, with most uncertainty concentrated in the latter half of 2026 rather than the immediate near-term (only 3% by June 30). The main factors shaping this probability are the political feasibility of such a rebranding (which requires executive action and potential congressional coordination), Trump's stated positions on immigration enforcement policy, and whether such a name change aligns with his administration's broader priorities. The lack of recent public statements committing to this specific rebranding keeps the probability modest. Resolution hinges on whether an official announcement or executive order is signed before year-end 2026.
- ›Trump has not publicly proposed renaming ICE to NICE as of May 2026, limiting expectation that this is an imminent priority
- ›A formal agency rebranding requires executive action and possible legislative changes, creating procedural barriers beyond simple announcement
- ›The June 30 contract trades at only 3%, suggesting minimal market expectation of action in the immediate term versus later in the year
- ›Trading volume on the December 31 contract is currently zero, indicating low active interest and potentially wide bid-ask spreads
- ›Whether Trump's immigration policy platform includes aesthetic rebranding versus substantive enforcement changes remains a key variable affecting outcome probability
What moved the line
- May 26December 31↑3pp19→22¢ · Polymarket
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 2 contracts (25% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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