Will Lions win?
This contract is priced at 22¢ on Polymarket. Current book: 17¢ bid, 27¢ ask, 10¢ spread.
Implied probability
Event outcomes
3
Family volume
$123
Best sibling
Leinster 86¢
Ticker
0x520d6225…c005
Market snapshot
Lions in market context.
This page tracks the Polymarket contract for Will Lions win?. The displayed quote is 22¢ from the latest venue quote. The cached market record reports 24h volume of $5. In the United Rugby Championship: Leinster vs Lions family, this outcome ranks #2 of 3 by current quote across 3 sibling outcomes. The indicator bundle was refreshed May 9, 2026, 5:08 AM UTC.
Outcome
Lions
Family rank
#2 of 3
Venue
Polymarket
Current quote
22¢
Quote source
Latest venue quote
Timing
Listed until May 16, 2026
24h volume
$5
Family context
3 outcomes · United Rugby Championship: Leinster vs Lions
Quote range
2¢-86¢
Family leader
Leinster 86¢
Last updated
May 9, 2026, 5:08 AM UTC · 11m ago
Venue identifier: 0x520d6225eddf85aaffd00c781968f26c37fbe160c18c36f6ec30f606609dc005. Family volume: $123.
Price history
22¢ current
−20¢Orderbook snapshot
17 / 27¢
Contract terms
Resolution, venue, and identifiers.
Resolution rules
In the upcoming game, scheduled for May 9 2026 If Lions wins, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve to "No". This market refers only to the outcome when the ball becomes dead after 80 minutes of regular play.
Venue
Polymarket
Closes
May 16, 2026
Identifier
0x520d6225…c005
Event family
United Rugby Championship: Leinster vs Lions.
This view keeps the individual contract next to its sibling outcomes. For long-tail search traffic, this is the useful context: where the current price sits inside the event, how much volume exists around the family, and which outcomes have actual depth.
Total volume
$123
Outcomes
3
Highest price
Leinster 86¢
Current share
14%
Lions
polymarket · 0x520d6225eddf85aaffd00c781968f26c37fbe160c18c36f6ec30f606609dc005
Leinster
polymarket · 0xd8fa83f0fdbaf97e107765fa612dcbdc6a7c239f581acfc8dd04fe8499547e84
Draw
polymarket · 0x5cf005c014419cb2fb884c7ba15f456104c3323ebbef1c1e088f93991dfcfd48
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
Full indicator table
Odds pages
Related prediction questions
Related readings
Matched from SimpleFunctions blog, opinions, technical guides, concepts, and learn pages.
Kalshi vs Polymarket: Which Prediction Market Should You Trade?
In-depth comparison of Kalshi and Polymarket for prediction market traders. Regulatory structure, liquidity, fees, API tooling, and cross-venue trading with SimpleFunctions.
Kalshi vs Polymarket: Mechanics, Fees, Regulation, Liquidity (2026)
Side-by-side comparison of Kalshi and Polymarket in 2026. Fee math, calibration data, withdrawal speed, and a decision tree for picking the right venue.
Liquidity Migration Across Resolution: Where the Money Goes When a Market Closes
When a flagship prediction market closes, the capital that was in it migrates to next-period siblings, adjacent categories, or off the venue entirely. Three migration patterns and the receiving-market opportunity.
Reading Prediction Market Orderbooks: Liquidity, Spread, and When to Enter
How to read prediction market orderbooks on Kalshi. Covers bid-ask spread analysis, liquidity scoring, executable edge calculation, and when thin markets are opportunities vs traps.
Cross-Venue Convergence Dynamics: Why Kalshi and Polymarket Converge — and When They Don't
Why the same outcome on Kalshi and Polymarket usually trades within 2-5 cents — and the three specific things that cause the gap to widen. Diagnostic guide and worked convergence trade.
Resolution Risk Premium: Pricing the Rule, Not the Outcome
When the resolution rule is fuzzy, the price is the market's estimate of how the rule will be interpreted, not the outcome's probability. Three case studies and the discount math.
SimpleFunctions context
Index, screen, query, and monitor.
Prediction Market Index
Market-wide volatility, geo risk, breadth, and activity around this contract.
Market Screener
Filter adjacent contracts by volume, expiry, IY, CRI, venue, and theme.
Event Probability API
Read 22% as a structured event probability object for agents and apps.
Realtime Data API
Prices, orderbooks, movement, heat, and liquidity indicators across venues.
World State API
Compact market-aware context packets for agent sessions and scheduled refresh.
Hedging Workflows
Map a thesis or exposure to candidate event markets and monitoring paths.