United Rugby Championship
Leader sits at 95% across 16 bound outcomes, runner-up at 86%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Bulls vs Zebre: Bulls
Outcomes
16
winner-take-all
Runner-up
86¢
Leinster vs Lions: Leinster
Spread
9pp
contested
24h volume
$283
thin orderbook
Closes
May 16, 2026
7 days
Venue
Polymarket
16 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
United Rugby Championship
United Rugby Championship: Dragons vs Edinburgh: Draw
0x6a925b…e413
United Rugby Championship: Sharks vs Benetton Treviso: Sharks
0xa79192…5a1a
United Rugby Championship: Connacht vs Munster: Munster
0x56cf1a…a1f7
United Rugby Championship: Bulls vs Zebre: Zebre
0xb73ec9…aa41
United Rugby Championship: Sharks vs Benetton Treviso: Draw
0x851ba8…9ebf
United Rugby Championship: Leinster vs Lions: Leinster
0xd8fa83…7e84
United Rugby Championship: Bulls vs Zebre: Bulls
0x7bb1e9…54e1
United Rugby Championship: Sharks vs Benetton Treviso: Benetton Treviso
0xe2a8d8…570d
United Rugby Championship: Connacht vs Munster: Draw
0x5701d7…6fa2
United Rugby Championship: Connacht vs Munster: Connacht
0x431897…aa25
United Rugby Championship: Leinster vs Lions: Lions
0x520d62…c005
United Rugby Championship: Ospreys vs Scarlets: Draw
0xae0886…98bb
United Rugby Championship: Dragons vs Edinburgh: Edinburgh
0xd66be9…e836
United Rugby Championship: Dragons vs Edinburgh: Dragons
0xe2c71f…7ba1
United Rugby Championship: Ospreys vs Scarlets: Scarlets
0xaa42c5…6d9e
United Rugby Championship: Ospreys vs Scarlets: Ospreys
0x633bac…8cd3
What moved the line
- May 8Ospreys vs Scarlets: Draw↓13pp27→14¢ · Polymarket
- May 8Connacht vs Munster: Connacht↑8pp50→58¢ · Polymarket
- May 7Sharks vs Benetton Treviso: Benetton Treviso↑8pp29→37¢ · Polymarket
- May 8Ospreys vs Scarlets: Ospreys↓8pp63→55¢ · Polymarket
- May 8Dragons vs Edinburgh: Edinburgh↓8pp58→50¢ · Polymarket
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 4 min ago.