US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30 is priced at 22¢ on Polymarket. Current book: 20¢ bid, 21¢ ask, 1¢ spread. This page tracks a standalone prediction-market contract.
Price history
22¢ current
−9¢Contract brief
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Iran by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect. Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
Outcome
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30
Rank
Standalone
Leader
—
Range
—
Family volume
$5.9M
Identifier
0xa70fc369...7633
Jun 8, 2026, 4:08 AM UTC · 27m ago
Implied probability
Bid
20¢
Ask
21¢
Spread
1¢
24h volume
$321K
Family rank
Standalone
Standalone contract
Closes
Jun 30, 2026
Family volume
$5.9M
Orderbook snapshot
20 / 21¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Iran by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect. Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
Venue
Polymarket
Closes
Jun 30, 2026
Identifier
0xa70fc369…7633
Event family
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$5.9M
Outcomes
1
Highest price
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30 21¢
Current share
100%
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
Observability
medium
Event type
political
Full indicator table
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.