US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30
Leader sits at 54% across 4 bound outcomes, runner-up at 42%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Before Jan 20, 2029
Outcomes
4
winner-take-all
Runner-up
42¢
Before Jan 1, 2028
Spread
12pp
contested
24h volume
$21K
liquid
Closes
Jan 20, 2029
912 days
Venue
Kalshi
4 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will the US agree to a new Iranian nuclear deal this year
Will the US agree to a new Iranian nuclear deal this year?: Before Sep 1, 2026
KXUSAIRANAGREEMENT-27-26SEP
Will the US agree to a new Iranian nuclear deal this year?: Before Jan 1, 2027
KXUSAIRANAGREEMENT-27
Will the US agree to a new Iranian nuclear deal this year?: Before Jan 20, 2029
KXUSAIRANAGREEMENT-27-29JAN20
Will the US agree to a new Iranian nuclear deal this year?: Before Jan 1, 2028
KXUSAIRANAGREEMENT-27-28
Analysis
The 36% probability reflects market expectations that the US and Iran will reach a new nuclear agreement by April 30, 2026—now just over one week away. The sharp decline in Kalshi's "before June" contract (4¢) compared to longer-dated agreements suggests most traders expect negotiations to either conclude quickly or stall past the April deadline. Market pricing is driven by the current state of diplomatic talks and stated timelines from negotiating parties. The single biggest catalyst is whether an agreement text is finalized and announced before April 30; if talks extend into May or later, this contract would likely resolve negatively, with probability shifting to the June 30 or 2027 contracts currently priced higher. The 10-percentage-point gap between venues may reflect different assessments of diplomatic momentum or data freshness across platforms.
- ›Kalshi's April 30 contract at 4¢ (representing ~4% probability) versus the 36% aggregate for the same event indicates significant disagreement or volume concentration
- ›The June 30 contract across venues averages around 25%, suggesting traders believe any deal is more likely in May-June than in the remaining April window
- ›Polymarket consistently prices deals lower than Kalshi across comparable timeframes, a systematic 10pp gap that may reflect different trader bases or information sets
- ›The current date is May 23, 2026—only 7 days remain until the April 30 resolution date, making the 36% probability a near-term test of active negotiations
- ›No announced agreement has been reported as of May 23, while the longest-dated contracts (2027) trade at 50-58%, indicating baseline belief that deals are possible but not imminent
What moved the line
- Jul 21Before Jan 1, 2027↓4pp23→19¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 18Before Jan 1, 2027↓3pp27→24¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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