US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 39% across 9 contracts. Kalshi at 43%, Polymarket at 33% — a 10pp cross-venue gap.
Implied probability
Kalshi
43%
6 contracts
Polymarket
33%
3 contracts
Cross-venue gap
10pp
wide divergence
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$264K
9 contracts
Closes
Jan 20, 2029
960 days
30-day trend
Cross-venue edge
Kalshi 43¢ · Polymarket 33¢ · 10pp spread
Buy on Polymarket (33¢, 3 contracts) and sell on Kalshi (43¢) — assuming both contracts settle on the same outcome.
Bracket families
3 clusters across 9 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 25% of their title tokens — “Will the US agree to a new Iranian nuclear deal” vs “US-Iran nuclear deal b”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Will the US agree to a new Iranian nuclear deal
Will the US agree to a new Iranian nuclear deal this year?: Before July
KXUSAIRANAGREEMENT-27-26JUL
Will the US agree to a new Iranian nuclear deal before August?: Before August
KXUSAIRANAGREEMENT-27-26AUG
Will the US agree to a new Iranian nuclear deal this year?: Before September
KXUSAIRANAGREEMENT-27-26SEP
Will the US agree to a new Iranian nuclear deal this year?: Before 2028
KXUSAIRANAGREEMENT-27-28
Will the US agree to a new Iranian nuclear deal this year?: Before 2027
KXUSAIRANAGREEMENT-27
Will the US agree to a new Iranian nuclear deal this year?: Before Jan 20, 2029
KXUSAIRANAGREEMENT-27-29JAN20
Cluster 2
US-Iran nuclear deal b
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?
0xa70fc3…7633
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?
0x182390…47d9
Cluster 3
U.S. x Russia Nuclear deal by
U.S. x Russia Nuclear deal by...?: June 30
0x0f9e5b…20b4
Analysis
The 36% probability reflects market expectations that the US and Iran will reach a new nuclear agreement by April 30, 2026—now just over one week away. The sharp decline in Kalshi's "before June" contract (4¢) compared to longer-dated agreements suggests most traders expect negotiations to either conclude quickly or stall past the April deadline. Market pricing is driven by the current state of diplomatic talks and stated timelines from negotiating parties. The single biggest catalyst is whether an agreement text is finalized and announced before April 30; if talks extend into May or later, this contract would likely resolve negatively, with probability shifting to the June 30 or 2027 contracts currently priced higher. The 10-percentage-point gap between venues may reflect different assessments of diplomatic momentum or data freshness across platforms.
- ›Kalshi's April 30 contract at 4¢ (representing ~4% probability) versus the 36% aggregate for the same event indicates significant disagreement or volume concentration
- ›The June 30 contract across venues averages around 25%, suggesting traders believe any deal is more likely in May-June than in the remaining April window
- ›Polymarket consistently prices deals lower than Kalshi across comparable timeframes, a systematic 10pp gap that may reflect different trader bases or information sets
- ›The current date is May 23, 2026—only 7 days remain until the April 30 resolution date, making the 36% probability a near-term test of active negotiations
- ›No announced agreement has been reported as of May 23, while the longest-dated contracts (2027) trade at 50-58%, indicating baseline belief that deals are possible but not imminent
What moved the line
- May 30US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?↓9pp49→40¢ · Polymarket
- May 31Before September↓9pp40→31¢ · Kalshi
- May 30Before September↓7pp47→40¢ · Kalshi
- May 31Before August↓6pp34→28¢ · Kalshi
- May 31Before July↓5pp20→15¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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Related reading
Iran Diplomatic Hopes Fade: Peace Deal and Nuclear Contract Odds Slide
The probability of a US-Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30 crashed 15 points to 24%, and odds on a permanent peace deal by the same date fell below 25%. Oil markets are pricing in sustained geopolitical risk.
Iran Peace Deal Odds Slide as Tensions Persist
The probability of a US-Iran permanent peace deal by June 30 dropped 4¢ to 24¢, while the chance of Iran closing its airspace rose. Traders should monitor Strait of Hormuz traffic normalization contracts for oil price implications.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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