US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30
Leader sits at 31% across 3 bound outcomes, runner-up at 22%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Before Jan 20, 2029
Outcomes
3
winner-take-all
Runner-up
22¢
Before Jan 1, 2028
Spread
9pp
contested
24h volume
$3K
modest
Closes
Jan 20, 2029
853 days
Venue
Kalshi
3 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will the US agree to a new Iranian nuclear deal this year
Will the US agree to a new Iranian nuclear deal this year?: Before Jan 1, 2027
KXUSAIRANAGREEMENT-27
Will the US agree to a new Iranian nuclear deal this year?: Before Jan 1, 2028
KXUSAIRANAGREEMENT-27-28
Will the US agree to a new Iranian nuclear deal this year?: Before Jan 20, 2029
KXUSAIRANAGREEMENT-27-29JAN20
Analysis
This reflects traders' assessment that a new US-Iran nuclear agreement is unlikely before April 2027, with only a 29% chance assigned to a deal by January 2029. The low probability reflects the substantial political distance between the parties: Iran's uranium enrichment has continued beyond JCPOA limits, US sanctions remain in place, and domestic political opposition in both countries constrains negotiating room. Key catalysts include changes in US administration policy (the 2024 election shapes near-term willingness to engage), Iranian domestic political transitions, and any major escalation in regional tensions. The timeframe breakdown shows traders see the most realistic window after January 2027 rather than before year-end 2026, suggesting expectations of continued diplomatic stalemate through 2026 followed by potential openness to negotiations in 2027-2028.
- ›Current US administration's stated positions on Iran negotiations and sanctions policy as of late 2026
- ›Iran's uranium enrichment levels and compliance with prior agreement frameworks
- ›Upcoming Iranian elections or leadership transitions that could shift Tehran's negotiating posture
- ›Regional military escalations or de-escalations that alter negotiation incentives for both parties
- ›Changes in European or allied positions on sanctions that could pressure US negotiating constraints
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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Iran Regime Fall at 36%, Nuclear Deal at 50%: Divergent Middle East Scenarios
Prediction markets are pricing simultaneous 36% regime-collapse and 50% nuclear-deal odds for Iran, suggesting traders see extreme volatility and binary outcomes rather than gradual policy shifts.
Iran Uranium Enrichment Deal Odds Surge 20 Points
The probability that Iran agrees to end uranium enrichment by June 30 has jumped from 40¢ to 60¢, the largest single-day move in this contract. Trading volume is very high, suggesting a potential leak, official statement, or significant progress in talks.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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