Will there be a US-Iran peace deal?
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 14% across 7 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
14%
7 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$1K
7 contracts
Closes
Jan 20, 2029
854 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
4 clusters across 7 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 13% of their title tokens — “Will the US” vs “Will a new nuclear reactor be approved by Dec 31, 2026”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Will the US
Will the US agree to a new Iranian nuclear deal this year?: Before Jan 1, 2028
KXUSAIRANAGREEMENT-27-28
Will the US agree to a new Iranian nuclear deal this year?: Before Jan 1, 2027
KXUSAIRANAGREEMENT-27
Will the US agree to a new Iranian nuclear deal this year?: Before Jan 20, 2029
KXUSAIRANAGREEMENT-27-29JAN20
Will the US reopen its embassy in Iran before Jan 1, 2027?: Before 2027
KXIRANEMBASSY-27
Cluster 2
Will a new nuclear reactor be approved by Dec 31, 2026
Will a new nuclear reactor be approved by Dec 31, 2026?: Grants license
KXREACTOR-26DEC31
Cluster 3
Will Iran's score in the Economist Intelligence Unit's Democracy Index be at least 6 in the 2026 edition
Cluster 4
Will Trump make a new free trade agreement with any country before Jan 20, 2029
Will Trump make a new free trade agreement with any country before Jan 20, 2029?: Before 2029
KXFTA-29
What moved the line
- Sep 17Before 2029↓8pp33→25¢ · Kalshi
Recently closed in iran
- Will the Strait of Hormuz reopen to normal shipping?last 33% · 0d
- Will July 10 be the day with the most transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz (7/6 - 7/12)last 11% · 31d
- Will the highest single-day number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz be more than 10 from Jul 13, 2026 to Jul 19, 2026last 86% · 36d
- Will Trump say "Make Iran Great Again" before May 1, 2026last 5% · 50d
- Will Iran’s average daily crude oil production for June 2026 be at least 2.4M bpdlast 90% · 67d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
Other questions in iran.
In iran
Related reading
Iran Regime Fall at 36%, Nuclear Deal at 50%: Divergent Middle East Scenarios
Prediction markets are pricing simultaneous 36% regime-collapse and 50% nuclear-deal odds for Iran, suggesting traders see extreme volatility and binary outcomes rather than gradual policy shifts.
Iran Uranium Enrichment Deal Odds Surge 20 Points
The probability that Iran agrees to end uranium enrichment by June 30 has jumped from 40¢ to 60¢, the largest single-day move in this contract. Trading volume is very high, suggesting a potential leak, official statement, or significant progress in talks.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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