Will there be a US-Iran peace deal?
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 33% across 13 contracts. Kalshi at 30%, Polymarket at 45% — a 15pp cross-venue gap.
Implied probability
Kalshi
30%
11 contracts
Polymarket
45%
2 contracts
Cross-venue gap
15pp
wide divergence
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$307K
13 contracts
Closes
Jan 20, 2029
958 days
30-day trend
Cross-venue edge
Kalshi 30¢ · Polymarket 45¢ · 15pp spread
Buy on Kalshi (30¢, 11 contracts) and sell on Polymarket (45¢) — assuming both contracts settle on the same outcome.
Bracket families
6 clusters across 13 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 0% of their title tokens — “Will the US” vs “US-Iran nuclear deal b”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Will the US
Will the US agree to a new Iranian nuclear deal this year?: Before July
KXUSAIRANAGREEMENT-27-26JUL
Will the US agree to a new Iranian nuclear deal this year?: Before 2027
KXUSAIRANAGREEMENT-27
Will the US reopen its embassy in Iran before Jan 1, 2027?: Before 2027
KXIRANEMBASSY-27
Will the US agree to a new Iranian nuclear deal this year?: Before September
KXUSAIRANAGREEMENT-27-26SEP
Will the US agree to a new Iranian nuclear deal before August?: Before August
KXUSAIRANAGREEMENT-27-26AUG
Will the US agree to a new Iranian nuclear deal this year?: Before 2028
KXUSAIRANAGREEMENT-27-28
Will the US agree to a new Iranian nuclear deal this year?: Before Jan 20, 2029
KXUSAIRANAGREEMENT-27-29JAN20
Cluster 2
US-Iran nuclear deal b
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?
0xa70fc3…7633
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?
0x182390…47d9
Cluster 3
Will a new nuclear reactor be approved by Dec 31, 2026
Will a new nuclear reactor be approved by Dec 31, 2026?: Grants license
KXREACTOR-26DEC31
Cluster 4
Will Iran hold a presidential election before Jan 1, 2027
Will Iran hold a presidential election before Jan 1, 2027?: Before Jan 1, 2027
KXELECTIRAN-27JAN01
Cluster 5
Will Iran's score in the Economist Intelligence Unit's Democracy Index be at least 6 in the 2026 edition
Cluster 6
Will Trump make a new free trade agreement with any country before Jan 20, 2029
Will Trump make a new free trade agreement with any country before Jan 20, 2029?: Before 2029
KXFTA-29
What moved the line
- Jun 1Before Jan 1, 2027↑10pp6→16¢ · Kalshi
- May 31Before September↓9pp40→31¢ · Kalshi
- May 31Before Jan 1, 2027↓6pp12→6¢ · Kalshi
- May 31Before August↓6pp34→28¢ · Kalshi
- May 31Before July↓5pp20→15¢ · Kalshi
Recently closed in iran
- Will Iran Play in the 2026 FIFA World Cuplast 97% · 2d
- Will __ ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?: 80+last 9% · 4d
- Avg. # of ships transiting Strait of Hormuz end of May?: 0-10last 96% · 4d
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of Maylast 3% · 4d
- Will USD hit ___ Iranian rials by May 31?: ↓ 1.5Mlast 40% · 5d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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Related reading
Iran Peace Deal Odds Collapse as June Deadlines Loom
The probability of a US-Iran permanent peace deal by June 30 dropped 6 cents to 17%, and by July 31 fell 11 cents to 28%. This swift repricing reflects increased skepticism that the parties can reach an agreement in the near term, putting upward pressure on oil risk premium. The 'No Meeting by June 30' contract for US-Iran diplomatic meetings jumped to 67 cents.
Iran Diplomatic Hopes Fade: Peace Deal and Nuclear Contract Odds Slide
The probability of a US-Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30 crashed 15 points to 24%, and odds on a permanent peace deal by the same date fell below 25%. Oil markets are pricing in sustained geopolitical risk.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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