SimpleFunctions
PolymarketDec 31, 2026241 days left

US strike on Mexico by December 31?

This contract is priced at 13¢ on Polymarket. Current book: 12¢ bid, 13¢ ask, 1¢ spread.

Implied probability

13¢
$616K volume
$17K liquidity
100% of event volume

Event outcomes

1

Family volume

$616K

Best sibling

Ticker

0xb23e6d6b…50a7

Price history

13¢ current

9¢
25¢50¢75¢100¢
Apr 9, 2026May 2, 2026

Orderbook snapshot

12 / 13¢

Polymarket
1¢ spread
BidSize
12¢623
11¢3.1K
10¢1.5K
9¢10K
6¢500
5¢5
4¢385
3¢7.5K
AskSize
13¢233
14¢204
15¢607
16¢222
17¢70
18¢205
28¢7
35¢50

Contract terms

Resolution, venue, and identifiers.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a US-initiated drone, missile, or air strike on the soil of Mexico is announced or credibly reported to have occurred by the listed date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within the listed country. A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of the listed country counts. Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify. Any strike occurring during this market’s timeframe that is claimed by either Donald Trump or the U.S. government will qualify. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. This market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.

Venue

Polymarket

Closes

Dec 31, 2026

Identifier

0xb23e6d6b…50a7

Event family

This market.

This view keeps the individual contract next to its sibling outcomes. For long-tail search traffic, this is the useful context: where the current price sits inside the event, how much volume exists around the family, and which outcomes have actual depth.

Total volume

$616K

Outcomes

1

Highest price

US strike on Mexico by December 31 13¢

Current share

100%

Indicators

Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.

Regime

neutral

Score

0.409

Observability

medium

Event type

political

Full indicator table

1013.1%
22.6%
Adj IY
507%
7

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