US strike on Mexico by...
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 13% across 1 Polymarket contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
—
not bound
Polymarket
13%
1 contract
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$191
1 contracts
Closes
Dec 31, 2026
241 days
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
US strike on Mexico by
US strike on Mexico by...?: December 31
0xb23e6d…50a7
Analysis
This contract estimates a 13% chance that the United States will conduct a military strike on Mexico by December 31, 2026. The probability reflects current geopolitical tensions, though military intervention between these neighbors would represent a significant escalation from historical norms. The estimate could rise if cross-border incidents intensify, migration or drug trafficking crises worsen, or if rhetoric between the governments escalates materially. Conversely, it could fall if diplomatic channels strengthen or if other regional concerns take priority in US foreign policy. The biggest uncertainty driver through the end of 2026 is how Mexico's security situation evolves under President Claudia Sheinbaum's administration, particularly regarding cartel violence and transnational crime affecting US interests. Historical precedent suggests such strikes remain unlikely, yet the contract implies meaningful concern about unprecedented escalation.
- ›Current US-Mexico bilateral relations and official statements regarding use of force as of mid-2026
- ›Severity and frequency of cross-border security incidents (cartel activity, violence affecting US citizens or territory)
- ›Mexican government's capacity and willingness to address US security concerns without external military intervention
- ›Rhetoric and policy positions from the incoming US administration regarding military options in North America
- ›Volume and recency of comparable geopolitical risk events or precedents involving allied nations
What moved the line
- Apr 29December 31↓12pp24→12¢ · Polymarket
- Apr 28December 31↑11pp13→24¢ · Polymarket
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 1 contract (13% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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