US x Iran diplomatic meeting by...
Leader sits at 80% across 3 bound outcomes, runner-up at 56%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
June 30
Outcomes
3
winner-take-all
Runner-up
56¢
May 31
Spread
24pp
contested
24h volume
$316K
liquid
Closes
May 15, 2026
6 days
Venue
Polymarket
3 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by
What moved the line
- May 8May 15↓6pp20→14¢ · Polymarket
- May 7May 15↓5pp25→20¢ · Polymarket
- May 7May 31↑3pp48→51¢ · Polymarket
- May 8June 30↓3pp74→71¢ · Polymarket
Recently closed in iran
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
Other questions in iran.
In iran
Related reading
Iran Peace Deal Odds Spike as Diplomacy Intensifies
Contracts for a permanent peace deal between the US and Iran by May 31 jumped 5¢ to 34¢ on Polymarket, while the June 30 deadline climbed to 54¢. The surge comes amid reports of back‑channel negotiations and a diplomatic meeting scheduled for mid‑May. Traders should watch the May 15 diplomatic meeting market, which collapsed 12¢ to 12¢, signaling a possible disconnect between expectations and reality.
Iran Peace Deal Odds Surge as Diplomacy Ramps Up
The probability of a U.S.-Iran permanent peace deal by June 30 has crossed 50¢ for the first time, signaling that traders see real progress in negotiations. Short-dated contracts expiring May 15 and May 31 have also spiked, indicating high conviction that a framework agreement could emerge within weeks.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 10 min ago.