US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?
This contract is priced at 70¢ on Polymarket. Current book: 69¢ bid, 70¢ ask, 1¢ spread.
Implied probability
Event outcomes
6
Family volume
$50.8M
Best sibling
May 31 21¢
Ticker
0x9769f78c…0d27
Market snapshot
December 31 in market context.
This page tracks the Polymarket contract for US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?. The displayed quote is 70¢ from the latest venue quote. The cached market record reports 24h volume of $303K. In the US x Iran permanent peace deal by...? family, this outcome ranks #1 of 6 by current quote across 6 sibling outcomes. The indicator bundle was refreshed May 11, 2026, 6:38 PM UTC.
Outcome
December 31
Family rank
#1 of 6
Venue
Polymarket
Current quote
70¢
Quote source
Latest venue quote
Timing
Listed until Dec 31, 2026
24h volume
$303K
Family context
6 outcomes · US x Iran permanent peace deal by...?
Quote range
0¢-70¢
Family leader
December 31 70¢
Last updated
May 11, 2026, 6:38 PM UTC · 11m ago
Venue identifier: 0x9769f78cbc95a5ed11895e6064bac471d8fd8f930b260cf581b68d3f58630d27. Family volume: $50.8M.
Price history
70¢ current
+29¢Orderbook snapshot
69 / 70¢
Contract terms
Resolution, venue, and identifiers.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran and the United states agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between the United States and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between the United States and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between the US and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of the two-week ceasefire agreement announced on April 7, 2026), will not qualify. A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met: - The United States and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria. - Both the governments of the United States and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Venue
Polymarket
Closes
Dec 31, 2026
Identifier
0x9769f78c…0d27
Event family
US x Iran permanent peace deal by.
This view keeps the individual contract next to its sibling outcomes. For long-tail search traffic, this is the useful context: where the current price sits inside the event, how much volume exists around the family, and which outcomes have actual depth.
Total volume
$50.8M
Outcomes
6
Highest price
December 31 70¢
Current share
2%
December 31
polymarket · 0x9769f78cbc95a5ed11895e6064bac471d8fd8f930b260cf581b68d3f58630d27
May 31
polymarket · 0x0e4a0c937b8934c2475613b6322b3f8edc8dedc24762e01e42b0e6f87424a089
May 15
polymarket · 0x1db02ba50e2312a62b4104de691cc7a76065d8d0da40decf93eb1b914a3217b7
June 30
polymarket · 0x6114a8a3f9ac214f48a7e20d169f1c7a5c84082cb6f7058ed9fe1137b11fd0e7
May 11
polymarket · 0x667c01a18ac1efb8300ce2c4d9fd573275cb633344148675beee8e097db193c4
May 13
polymarket · 0x2509daa236d3aea83c910be4e00f50027dd72e6fa0d350536d07cd079f58d7ab
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.