US x Iran permanent peace deal by...
Leader sits at 38% across 3 bound outcomes, runner-up at 19%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
June 30
Outcomes
3
winner-take-all
Runner-up
19¢
May 31
Spread
19pp
contested
24h volume
$773K
liquid
Closes
May 31, 2026
27 days
Venue
Polymarket
3 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
US x Iran permanent peace deal by
Analysis
This market prices the likelihood of a permanent peace agreement between the US and Iran by June 30, 2026, at 37%. The current probability reflects significant uncertainty: shorter-term deals by May 15 and May 31 trade much lower (5¢ and 18¢), suggesting markets expect any near-term agreement would be interim rather than permanent. Key drivers include ongoing nuclear negotiations, regional tensions around Iranian assets like Kharg Island, and uranium enrichment levels. The main catalyst will be whether diplomatic talks produce a framework agreement within the next two months, versus continued status-quo hostilities or military escalation. Markets also distinguish between deal announcements and actual implementation, with permanent agreements requiring verification mechanisms.
- ›Shorter timeframe contracts (May 15, May 31) price far lower than the June 30 deadline, indicating markets doubt rapid resolution of core issues like uranium enrichment verification
- ›Related market on US obtaining Iranian enriched uranium by May 31 trades at 10¢, suggesting nuclear negotiations remain the primary sticking point rather than diplomatic willingness
- ›High volume and 37¢ pricing on the June 30 contract suggests meaningful probability of agreement, yet substantial doubt given it represents less than even odds
- ›The runner-up outcome at 18% indicates markets assign significant probability to alternative scenarios (military action, negotiation failure, or different endpoint dates)
- ›Market liquidity concentrated on May-June timeframes rather than later 2026 dates suggests near-term events will determine whether permanent deal framework emerges
What moved the line
- May 2May 15↓3pp9→6¢ · Polymarket
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 13 min ago.