a case primarily related to tariffs imposed by Donald Trump · KXTRUMPTARIFFHEAR-27JAN
a case primarily related to tariffs imposed by Donald Trump is priced at 21¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 18¢ bid, 21¢ ask, 3¢ spread. This page tracks a standalone prediction-market contract.
Price history
21¢ current
−18¢Contract brief
If the Supreme Court grants a writ of certiorari to a case primarily related to tariffs imposed by Donald Trump before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
a case primarily related to tariffs imposed by Donald Trump
Rank
Standalone
Leader
—
Range
—
Family volume
$52
Identifier
KXTRUMPTARIFFHEAR-27JAN-X
Jun 19, 2026, 2:38 AM UTC · 0m ago
Implied probability
Bid
18¢
Ask
21¢
Spread
3¢
24h volume
$52
Family rank
Standalone
Standalone contract
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
Family volume
$52
Orderbook snapshot
18 / 21¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If the Supreme Court grants a writ of certiorari to a case primarily related to tariffs imposed by Donald Trump before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
Identifier
KXTRUMPTARIFFHEAR-27JAN-X
Event family
KXTRUMPTARIFFHEAR-27JAN.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$52
Outcomes
1
Highest price
a case primarily related to tariffs imposed by Donald Trump 18¢
Current share
100%
a case primarily related to tariffs imposed by Donald Trump
kalshi · KXTRUMPTARIFFHEAR-27JAN-X
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.409
Observability
medium
Event type
political
Full indicator table
Odds pages
Related prediction questions
Related readings
Matched from SimpleFunctions blog, opinions, technical guides, concepts, and learn pages.
Kalshi vs Polymarket: Which Prediction Market Should You Trade?
In-depth comparison of Kalshi and Polymarket for prediction market traders. Regulatory structure, liquidity, fees, API tooling, and cross-venue trading with SimpleFunctions.
Liquidity Availability Is the Real Edge in Prediction Markets
Implied yield, cliff risk, and overround all describe what to trade. Liquidity Availability Score describes whether the orderbook can absorb the trade. Why LAS is the indicator that decides who actually books P&L.
US Recession 2025? What 1% Prediction Market Odds Get Right—and Wrong—About the Cycle
Prediction markets put 2025 US recession odds near 1%, while yield curves, economic indicators, and institutional forecasts point to much higher risk. This deep dive compares market pricing to historical base rates, Federal Reserve policy, and forecasting models to see if investors are underpricing recession risk.
Implied Yield vs Raw Probability: Why Bond-Adjacent Prediction Markets Need a Different Lens
Why fixed-income-adjacent prediction-market contracts need to be priced in implied yield, not raw probability, with two real Kalshi Fed-decision contracts as a case study.
Trump Tariffs 2026: Trade War Risk with China & Mexico and What Prediction Markets Are Pricing In
Deep‑dive guide to Trump’s 2025–26 tariff agenda, trade war risk with China and Mexico, macro and sector impacts, and how to use prediction markets to trade Trump tariffs 2026.
Prediction Market Orderbook Analysis: Reading Depth, Spread, and Liquidity
How to read prediction market orderbooks. Binary settlement, spread-as-percentage, depth asymmetry, executable edge calculation, and cross-venue arbitrage analysis.
SimpleFunctions context
Index, screen, query, and monitor.
Prediction Market Index
Market-wide volatility, geo risk, breadth, and activity around this contract.
Market Screener
Filter adjacent contracts by volume, expiry, IY, CRI, venue, and theme.
Event Probability API
Read 21% as a structured event probability object for agents and apps.
Realtime Data API
Prices, orderbooks, movement, heat, and liquidity indicators across venues.
World State API
Compact market-aware context packets for agent sessions and scheduled refresh.
Hedging Workflows
Map a thesis or exposure to candidate event markets and monitoring paths.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.