What cases will the Supreme Court agree to hear before Jan 2027?
Prediction markets currently give a 47% probability that What cases will the Supreme Court agree to hear before Jan 2027?. This contract trades at 47¢ on Kalshi, closing January 1, 2027. This market shows extreme volatility (376% realized vol) and illiquidity ($40 daily volume, $3.5k open interest) typical of niche Supreme Court prediction markets, with a notably asymmetric yield profile favoring the "No" side at 202% versus 97.7% for "Yes." The 59¢ price implies a coin-flip probability for a Trump tariff case reaching SCOTUS by year-end 2026, though the high information arrival rate (2.4/hour) and 4¢ spread suggest active debate around this specific policy area.
Analysis
This market shows extreme volatility (376% realized vol) and illiquidity ($40 daily volume, $3.5k open interest) typical of niche Supreme Court prediction markets, with a notably asymmetric yield profile favoring the "No" side at 202% versus 97.7% for "Yes." The 59¢ price implies a coin-flip probability for a Trump tariff case reaching SCOTUS by year-end 2026, though the high information arrival rate (2.4/hour) and 4¢ spread suggest active debate around this specific policy area. With 260 days to expiry and neutral regime conditions, the market appears fairly priced but illiquid enough that meaningful position sizes could move the quote significantly.
Also on polymarket at 60¢(Δ -13¢)
Resolution rules
If the Supreme Court grants a writ of certiorari to a case primarily related to tariffs imposed by Donald Trump before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXTRUMPTARIFFHEAR-27JAN-X yes 100