What Trump-named things will Trump mention in April
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 30% across 11 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
30%
11 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$3K
11 contracts
Closes
Jan 20, 2029
946 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
3 clusters across 11 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 22% of their title tokens — “What will” vs “What cities will Trump send the National Guard to in 2026”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
What will
What will the Supreme Court look like at the end of Trump's term?: 6 Conservatives and 3 Liberals
KXSCOTUSPOWER-29-29JAN20-R6-3
What will the Supreme Court look like at the end of Trump's term?: Not nine justices
KXSCOTUSPOWER-29-29JAN20-R0-0
What will the average number of measles cases be during the Trump Administration?: At least 5000
KXAVGMEASLESDJT-29-5000
What will the Supreme Court look like at the end of Trump's term?: 7 Conservatives and 2 Liberals
KXSCOTUSPOWER-29-29JAN20-R7-2
What will the average number of measles cases be during the Trump Administration?: At least 2000
KXAVGMEASLESDJT-29-2000
Cluster 2
What cities will Trump send the National Guard to in 2026
What cities will Trump send the National Guard to in 2026?: Chicago
KXNGUARDCITY-26-CHI
What cities will Trump send the National Guard to in 2026?: Portland
KXNGUARDCITY-26-POR
What cities will Trump send the National Guard to in 2026?: San Francisco
KXNGUARDCITY-26-SF
What cities will Trump send the National Guard to in 2026?: Detroit
KXNGUARDCITY-26-DET
What cities will Trump send the National Guard to in 2026?: Houston
KXNGUARDCITY-26-HOU
Cluster 3
What cases will the Supreme Court agree to hear before Jan 2027
Analysis
This market predicts whether Donald Trump will mention things named after himself during April 2026, currently priced at 33% probability. The 20-percentage-point gap between venues suggests disagreement about Trump's likelihood of referencing his own name or branded properties in public statements during that month. The estimate reflects uncertainty about Trump's communication patterns and speaking frequency during April specifically. Historical reference rates matter—how often Trump mentions his branded businesses, properties, or namesake items in typical months would establish a baseline. Upcoming political events, scheduled speeches, or controversies in April could trigger more or fewer public statements generally. The resolution requires clear documentation of Trump's statements during the calendar month, making specificity about what counts as a "mention" critical to market accuracy.
- ›Frequency of Trump's public statements and appearances scheduled for April 2026, which directly affects opportunity for mentions
- ›Historical baseline of how often Trump references his own name or branded entities (Trump Tower, Trump University, etc.) in comparable time periods
- ›The cross-venue pricing gap of 20 points indicates material disagreement between Kalshi and Polymarket traders about the underlying probability
- ›Clarity of resolution criteria—whether mentions must be direct references to Trump-named properties or include indirect references to his business empire
- ›April 2026 political calendar, including scheduled events, legal proceedings, or media coverage that could prompt Trump statements
What moved the line
- Jun 12a case primarily related to tariffs imposed by Donald Trump↓14pp37→23¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 13a case primarily related to tariffs imposed by Donald Trump↓3pp23→20¢ · Kalshi
Recently closed in trump
- Will Trump visit Pakistan by...last 4% · 0d
- Will Trump talk to Mojtaba Khamenei by...last 3% · 0d
- Which countries will Donald Trump visit in 2026last 96% · 0d
- Trump out as President before 2027last 11% · 0d
- Who will leave Trump Administration before 2027last 66% · 0d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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