What Trump-named things will Trump mention in April
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 27% across 11 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
27%
11 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$25
11 contracts
Closes
Jan 20, 2029
848 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
3 clusters across 11 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 22% of their title tokens — “What cities will Trump send the National Guard to in 2026” vs “What will”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
What cities will Trump send the National Guard to in 2026
What cities will Trump send the National Guard to in 2026?: Chicago
KXNGUARDCITY-26-CHI
What cities will Trump send the National Guard to in 2026?: Portland
KXNGUARDCITY-26-POR
What cities will Trump send the National Guard to in 2026?: San Francisco
KXNGUARDCITY-26-SF
What cities will Trump send the National Guard to in 2026?: Detroit
KXNGUARDCITY-26-DET
What cities will Trump send the National Guard to in 2026?: Houston
KXNGUARDCITY-26-HOU
Cluster 2
What will
What will the Supreme Court look like at the end of Trump's term?: Not nine justices
KXSCOTUSPOWER-29-29JAN20-R0-0
What will the Supreme Court look like at the end of Trump's term?: 7 Conservatives and 2 Liberals
KXSCOTUSPOWER-29-29JAN20-R7-2
What will the average number of measles cases be during the Trump Administration?: At least 2000
KXAVGMEASLESDJT-29-2000
What will the average number of measles cases be during the Trump Administration?: At least 5000
KXAVGMEASLESDJT-29-5000
What will the Supreme Court look like at the end of Trump's term?: 6 Conservatives and 3 Liberals
KXSCOTUSPOWER-29-29JAN20-R6-3
Cluster 3
What cases will the Supreme Court agree to hear before Jan 2027
Analysis
This contract asks whether Donald Trump will mention things named after him during April 2027. The 39% probability reflects moderate uncertainty about whether such references will occur in his public statements, remarks, or communications. Several factors influence this assessment: Trump's communication style and frequency of public appearances in April, which would determine opportunity for such mentions; the prevalence of Trump-branded properties, businesses, and other entities that could naturally arise in conversation; and baseline rates of self-referential language in political discourse. The resolution depends on documented public statements during the specific month, making April 2027 itself the key catalyst—when actual statements will be recorded and analyzed against the contract's criteria. Current trading volume is minimal across related contracts, suggesting limited market conviction and high uncertainty about both the underlying probability and how statements will be evaluated.
- ›Trump's public appearance schedule and communication frequency in April 2027 will directly affect opportunities to mention Trump-named entities
- ›Definition clarity: whether contract requires explicit naming (e.g., 'Trump Tower') versus implicit references or contextual mentions
- ›Historical baseline of Trump's self-referential language patterns compared to other public figures or his own past speech samples
- ›Existence and prominence of Trump-branded properties, businesses, and projects still operational or newsworthy by April 2027
- ›Trading volume remains near zero across related contracts, indicating weak market signal and potential for significant repricing upon clarification or early mentions
What moved the line
- Sep 19Chicago↓18pp19→1¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 24Houston↑15pp1→16¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 19Detroit↓14pp15→1¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 24Chicago↑13pp5→18¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 24Detroit↑13pp1→14¢ · Kalshi
Recently closed in trump
- Will Donald Trump attend UFC 332last 4% · 14d
- Will Donald Trump meet (including phone calls) Kevin Warsh in Sep 2026last 90% · 15d
- Will Trump say "Marjorie Traitor Greene" before Jul 1, 2026last 40% · 15d
- Will Trump say "Hungary / Hungarian" before Oct 1, 2026last 91% · 15d
- Who will Trump talk to in Aprillast 3% · 23d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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