What Trump-named things will Trump mention in April
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 35% across 17 contracts. Kalshi at 34%, Polymarket at 52% — a 18pp cross-venue gap.
Implied probability
Kalshi
34%
16 contracts
Polymarket
52%
1 contract
Cross-venue gap
18pp
wide divergence
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$3K
17 contracts
Top contract
94¢
$889 · Kalshi
30-day trend
Cross-venue edge
Kalshi 34¢ · Polymarket 52¢ · 18pp spread
Buy on Kalshi (34¢, 16 contracts) and sell on Polymarket (52¢) — assuming both contracts settle on the same outcome.
Bracket families
8 clusters across 17 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 22% of their title tokens — “What will” vs “What cities will Trump send the National Guard to in 2026”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
What will
What will the Supreme Court look like at the end of Trump's term?: Not nine justices
KXSCOTUSPOWER-29-29JAN20-R0-0
What will the average number of measles cases be during the Trump Administration?: At least 5000
KXAVGMEASLESDJT-29-5000
What will the Supreme Court look like at the end of Trump's term?: 6 Conservatives and 3 Liberals
KXSCOTUSPOWER-29-29JAN20-R6-3
What will The Walt Disney Company say during their next earnings call?: Trump
KXEARNINGSMENTIONDIS-26MAY06-TRUM
What will the Supreme Court look like at the end of Trump's term?: 7 Conservatives and 2 Liberals
KXSCOTUSPOWER-29-29JAN20-R7-2
What will the average number of measles cases be during the Trump Administration?: At least 2000
KXAVGMEASLESDJT-29-2000
Cluster 2
What cities will Trump send the National Guard to in 2026
What cities will Trump send the National Guard to in 2026?: Houston
KXNGUARDCITY-26-HOU
What cities will Trump send the National Guard to in 2026?: Portland
KXNGUARDCITY-26-POR
What cities will Trump send the National Guard to in 2026?: Chicago
KXNGUARDCITY-26-CHI
What cities will Trump send the National Guard to in 2026?: San Francisco
KXNGUARDCITY-26-SF
What cities will Trump send the National Guard to in 2026?: Detroit
KXNGUARDCITY-26-DET
Cluster 3
What will Bernie Sanders say during Fighting Oligarchy: Where We Go From Here with Bernie Sanders in Detroit
Cluster 4
What will happen before GTA VI
What will happen before GTA VI?: Trump out as President
0x84f8b7…66e9
Cluster 5
What will Kathy Hochul say during next Governor Kathy Hochul announcement
What will Kathy Hochul say during next Governor Kathy Hochul announcement?: Trump
KXHOCHULMENTION-26APR29B-TRUM
Cluster 6
What will Zohran Mamdani say during next NYC Mayor's Office announcement
Cluster 7
What will Drake say during Iceman
What will Drake say during Iceman?: Trump
KXDRAKEMENTION-26MAY15-TRUM
Cluster 8
What cases will the Supreme Court agree to hear before Jan 2027
What moved the line
- Apr 29Trump↑41pp2→43¢ · Kalshi
- May 1Trump↓24pp31→7¢ · Kalshi
- May 2Where We Go From Here with Bernie Sanders in Detroit?: Trump (3+ times)↑19pp66→85¢ · Kalshi
- Apr 30Trump↓12pp43→31¢ · Kalshi
- May 1Trump / President↑9pp43→52¢ · Kalshi
Recently closed in trump
- Canterbury Rams vs Franklin Bulls WinnerSouthland Sharkslast 65% · 0d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 11 min ago.